The virus has shifted the axis of power and made the ground ready for an alliance of like-minded geographies with a focus on regional strategic ties
As the world lurches towards a new year, the axis of strategic ties among nations for mutual economic and geopolitical benefits seems to be taking a new turn. To begin with, in nearly three decades a British Prime Minister is slated to be the chief guest at the Republic Day function in New Delhi. Almost at the same time, a new President is expected to take charge of the world’s oldest and most prosperous democracy, the US. Third, millions around the globe would have been vaccinated with first doses of the Coronavirus vaccine, which is expected to bring the relentless march of the deadly infection to a halt. All these developments, when looked at from an India-specific prism provide significant opportunities and associated trap doors for the projected $10 trillion economy by 2030.
First, the promised visit of Boris Johnson to a function which marks the celebration of the Indian Constitution is an optical landmark that showcases the warming of many decades of frigid ties riddled with terms like colony and colonisers. Historically, the UK has been seen as a former coloniser wishing to poke its nose in regional issues such as Kashmir and the Afghanistan war, tilting in favour of Pakistan. Slowly, it turned towards defence ties where India chose French fighter planes over the UK’s multirole fighter, while it was still miffed with the steady fall in students to the UK due to a scrapping of the work permit policy. In between, a very large British telecom giant and one of the largest Foreign Direct Investment contributors to India had to get into an uneasy relationship with an Indian operator to remain in business.
However, the global pandemic has shifted the axis of power and made the ground ready for an alliance of like-minded geographies with a focus on regional strategic ties. The UK took the first bold step, effectively banning Chinese telecom equipment makers from the fifth generation telecom networks, while making strong statements on Beijing’s expansive moves in the South China Sea. It is here that the recent visit of British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to New Delhi assumes significance as he mentioned upgrading of India-UK ties as well as Free Trade Agreements between the two nations as top priorities. Putting the economy right in the middle of a new era of partnership is a win-win situation for both countries. A post-Brexit UK will need new markets and templates for trade relationships with individual nations such as India. On the other hand India will most likely be able to forge a strategic long-term alliance for its technological, healthcare and financial targets.
On the same page comes a new administration in the US, which is likely to push for a multilateral approach on tricky topics like climate change, digital regulation (digital tax and data flows across international borders). The initial choice of US President-elect Joe Biden’s top Cabinet members could reflect a completely new template for New Delhi-Washington engagement. This could mean India may have a better say in issues on multilateral platforms on topics like climate focus, while facing flak on issues related to digital diplomacy and strategy. Also, the Centre may be subjected to a not so sweet discourse on management of human rights and some old regional issues may be occasionally brought up. The high point of this long, largely politically agnostic journey could be optically measured with a town hall or Republic Day appearance by Biden in the next four years. The key aspect of change is expected to be in the manner the two administrations move beyond social media diplomacy to real world, deep impact agreements, which should reflect in increased partnerships, investments and opportunity creations in the two economies.
China would continue to play a significant role in global politics. However, a stronger alliance of like-minded nations moving towards globally accepted, interoperable technology regulations for the 21st century could be steered by India and the US.
Finally, the super news for 2021 would be universal vaccination. It is heartening to see India working with both, the UK and the US, towards urgent and decisive elimination of the virus which has cost thousands of lives and millions of livelihoods across the world. In a couple of months a substantive portion of the population would have been immunised but, the outbreak has taught lessons for the future and led to greater international co-operation.
The virus has been a reminder for nations at different levels of technological advancements to join hands and use the power of technology to eliminate global challenges related to climate change, environmental degradation, access to safe housing and food, sustainable agriculture and good health for all. After all, the wealth of nations lies in the well-being of citizens. If advancements in technology have shrunk boundaries and created wars as well, there lie the seeds for providing greater economic benefits to citizens by using the same technology. The highest laurels for leadership in the 21st century, much like the post-World War planet, would go to those who find technology-aided solutions to increase the well-being of the human race. In more ways than one, this year has been a watershed moment in human development. Now it is for strong leaders to move ahead.
(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal)