The Quad countries have a keen interest in ensuring a secure and safe Central Asia
National security advisors of seven countries attended a high-level regional security dialogue this week on Afghanistan, hosted for the first time by India. This marks a significant step by India to place itself in the heart of influence in the theater of Afghanistan.
Pakistan, an invited party, along expected lines, chose to stay away from the meeting given its political and military differences with India, and its claim to right of ownership over Afghanistan's internal politics and governance. China, another key player was also invited, but chose to keep its partner-country Pakistan happy and stayed away.
The signal emerging is, China would like to increase its economic and technology presence in Afghanistan with Pakistan laying the groundwork and would try all it can to neutralize India's sphere of influence.
India has decades of diplomatic, economic, cultural assets in Afghanistan and has a significant concern with the evolving situation in the country, which is already starting to make its presence felt through heightened terror attacks and attempts. India has so far not provided official recognition to the new Taliban regime and has been demanding a united international approach on Afghanistan.
Historically, Russia has been a key player in this region, as many of the countries were part of erstwhile Soviet Union. However, in the wake of an expansive China its share has diminished. China, now is the dominant trade partner with Central Asia, while Russia is a distant second. India and the United States, despite being influential and large, have almost no trade relationship. This makes the situation complex as many of the countries in Central Asia are in a huge debt-trap with China.
This creates a situation for these relatively smaller countries to align without any influence on consensual international voices of peace and stability in Afghanistan. While these countries are aware security threats due to the Afghan chaos, they are also sensitive to the huge dominance of China finance in their key infrastructure projects.
India did well to take the lead and host the regional security dialogue in New Delhi, at a time when some of these central Asian countries, as well as Iran and Russia are looking for fresh perspective, away from China influence.
India has to approach Afghanistan through this regional multilateral platform with a certain amount of diplomatic maturity as it tries to expand its scope of influence in the region. India needs to take this regional dialogue wider and louder by involving the European Union and US towards peace and stability in the region. Europe, which has so far relied on NATO alliances and therefore, the US,for monitoring Central Asia, is now waking up to the new realities after Washington exited Kabul.
The US has significant security and strategic interests to remain invested in the region, even though it does not want to be at the fore front anymore. This means China will have an opportunity to run its military and strategic objectives from Afghanistan and other parts of central Asia unchallenged while Indian security interests will be threatened. At some point of time, Pakistan would also like to use its influence over China to create security threats for India using Afghan non-state actors.
India is actively participating in developing a strong technological and economic alliance via the QUAD, which is more focused towards the Indo Pacific belt. The QUAD countries also have a keen interest in ensuring a secure safe Central Asia, while containing China's technological and economic dominance. The regional security dialogue for India is good beginning, it must follow up with increased presence in the Central Asia.
(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal.)