To create deterrence against China's hegemonistic tendencies, it is vital to build superior cyber capabilities
The role of information in warfare has changed a lot since the sabotage of enemy communication lines in the two world wars. The German communications infrastructure was crippled by British and Allied forces by what we now call hacking, a broad term that encompasses both access to the enemy country’s top secrets through covert means and sabotaging its critical communications grid. Since then, technological breakthroughs have enabled countries to launch sophisticated attacks on one another to cause a complete breakdown of vital assets across civil and military domains.
Future warfare will not just depend on military superiority but the ability to conquer new frontiers of technology, including cyber and outer space. Access to sensitive and secret information and technology will be a key determinant of any new-age combat.
Even in localised conflict with China, cyber warfare will play a vital role, both in determining the outcome and in setting the larger narrative. To create deterrence against China’s hegemonistic tendencies, it is vital to build superior cyber capabilities. Much before its tanks roll out on the Ladakh border with India or frigates and aircraft carriers come out in the Taiwan Strait, China will unleash cyber warfare. The future of the present order will be determined by whether China is defeated in its attempts to weaponize information.
A holistic global cyber strategy to circumvent China’s proclivity to use data as a weapon of global dominance must be formulated. The urgency regarding this can be gauged from the fact that the United States accused China's all-powerful Ministry of State Security (MSS)of a sophisticated cyber-assault on Microsoft's Exchange email systems this year.
In 2020, both India and Australia were at the receiving end of sophisticated cyber-attacks. A third of all cyber-attacks in India allegedly originate from China. With the advent of technology, this entire exercise is done remotely, in little time, and is hard to detect. They are a useful tool in any country’s arsenal since they can be deployed relatively easily, can cause disproportionate damage, and allow nations to claim plausible deniability.
Cyber warfare has three clear aspects, and China has been beefing up its capabilities in all these spheres. One, gather sensitive information about a rival country to compromise its national security. Two, cripple the adversary’s national assets like power grids and telecom networks. Three, paralyse the enemy’s military command systems during a full-blown military conflict. The ability to defend against cyber-attacks is now almost as important as protecting physical borders.
But cyber-attacks are also about stealing industrial secrets, or ‘cyber theft’. This is exactly what has worried the US since in its indictment of the four Chinese nationals when attempts were made to steal trade secrets from the aviation, defence, and bio-pharma sectors that are central to Chinese technology strategies for its Make in China 2025 and Make in China 2035.
The world must guard its industrial secrets more than ever before. Industries that rely heavily on technology in sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, quantum, telecommunications, etc., need to keep their guard high.
A holistic counter-strategy needs a combination of America’s naming and shaming, India’s policy of banning apps where data security is at risk, and Australia’s investments in bolstering digital infrastructure. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s hard hitting statement regarding MSS should set the tone for a larger and collective approach to tackle the threat. Blinken said MSS “has fostered an ecosystem of criminal contract hackers who carry out both state-sponsored activities and cyber crime for their own financial gain”.
Global data governance, which requires close cooperation amongst countries, unfortunately, has not kept pace with technological developments. Norms regarding the collection, sharing, and usage of data amongst nations need to be instituted. Interoperability standards for global data value chains that put together a collection of data and access to data platforms must be created. Codified data governance standards to build trust and manage issues like data ownership, usage, security, and privacy are the need of the hour.
The Data Standards Task Force under the UN will create a single framework with clear regulations, norms, and rules. India can play an active role in these efforts by leveraging its traditional strengths in technology and providing insights from its own experiences of handling cyber-attacks.
I-warfare has no regard for national boundaries; the response to it must not either.
(The writer is a senior journalist, columnist and author of the book 'Blinkers Off, How Will The World Counter China’. The views expressed are personal.)