About two weeks ago, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that India’s proposal regarding a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was the most comprehensive among the four proposals currently under consideration. Notably, India’s proposal addresses a wide range of issues, including energy, infrastructure, Black Sea ports, grain exports and commercial shipping. Ukraine has reported receiving a total of four peace proposals so far-from India, Türkiye, Egypt and the United States.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been ongoing for over four years, has caused immense devastation. Although Russia, being a major power, has suffered significantly less damage compared to Ukraine, the conflict is nonetheless proving detrimental not only to both nations but also to global peace. Wars disrupt supply chains, cause loss of life and property, hinder the movement of people and economic activity, and lead to the wastage of resources; ultimately, public welfare suffers the most. Therefore, it is imperative that this protracted war comes to an end soon.
Reflecting on the origins of the conflict, it is worth noting that both Russia and Ukraine were once part of the Soviet Union (USSR); Ukraine emerged as an independent nation following the Soviet collapse. There was no history of deep-seated animosity between the peoples of Russia and Ukraine, and pro-Russian political parties had frequently been elected to power in Ukraine.
However, a primary and critical trigger for the war was the move by Ukraine’s current political leadership to seek membership in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). NATO is a political and military alliance comprising nations from Europe and North America. It was established on April 4, 1949, with the aim of providing collective security to its member states. Until now, NATO countries hostile to Russia were separated from it by Ukraine. Consequently, if Ukraine were to become a NATO member, the direct result would be a shared border between NATO and Russia, raising the prospect of a direct confrontation between Russia and the powerful NATO alliance. This is why Russia found the idea of Ukraine joining NATO unacceptable and launched an attack on the country.
Following the attack, Ukraine was able to sustain its war effort for a prolonged period thanks to assistance from NATO nations, comprising both European countries and the United States, and managed to inflict some damage on Russia. However, the protracted nature of the conflict has led to a sense of fatigue within the United States. President Trump believed he could end the war through mediation; he made statements to this effect, even claiming he would bring the conflict to a close within 24 hours of assuming the presidency.
True to his nature of disregarding global institutions, President Trump continued to show disdain not only for the United Nations and the World Trade Organization but also for NATO, even declaring an intention to withdraw the United States from the alliance, though no formal announcement of withdrawal has actually been made so far.
It is not as though no attempts have been made to halt the war over the past few years; rather, those efforts have yet to bear fruit. President Trump even summoned President Zelenskyy to Washington regarding this matter, but the talks ended with a widely publicised clash between the two leaders.
There had been earlier attempts to end the conflict as well. Initially, between February and April 2022, Russia and Ukraine engaged in direct talks in Belarus and Istanbul (Türkiye), though these proved inconclusive. Subsequently, Türkiye and the United Nations attempted to mediate, resulting in an agreement allowing Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea; however, Russia refused to renew this deal in July 2023. The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution calling upon Russia to end the war and respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but Russia rejected this as well. Mediation efforts by various parties, including Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, the United States, the European Union, China, Brazil and the Vatican, have also proven unsuccessful so far. Furthermore, the numerous economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, the UK, Japan and others have had no impact on the war.
In this context, the question arises: how can this war end? It must be understood that it is not possible to subdue a major strategic power like Russia merely through international sanctions or by providing economic and military aid to Ukraine. During the era of a unipolar world, the US had come to believe that instigating and halting wars was child’s play for it. However, one must realise that geopolitical shifts have transformed the global landscape. Meanwhile, European nations, formerly US allies, have begun to assert their own distinct identities. They no longer believe the US is capable of guaranteeing their security. Furthermore, the US has frequently engaged in hostile rhetoric against them, even threatening to withdraw from NATO.
The protracted nature of the war, geopolitical shifts and the erosion of America’s capacity for global leadership are key factors making the prospect of halting the conflict through external pressure appear increasingly dim. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise that efforts to stop the war through other avenues are still underway globally.
In the current scenario, the primary point of contention between Russia and Ukraine concerns the line of control. Russia is unwilling to return the territories it has seized, whereas Ukraine maintains that if this does not happen, it would amount to a violation of its territorial integrity. The second issue revolves around NATO; Russia has consistently stated its opposition to Ukraine joining the alliance. The third issue concerns energy infrastructure. Following Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and power grids, Russia seeks a peace agreement stipulating that neither nation will target the other’s energy infrastructure. The fourth contentious issue relates to international sanctions; Western nations remain unwilling to lift these economic restrictions. The fifth issue concerns post-war reconstruction. Civilian and industrial infrastructure has suffered extensive damage during the conflict, and there is a dispute regarding who will bear the cost of this reconstruction.
Both nations acknowledge that an immediate resolution to all these issues is not feasible. In this context, firstly, India’s proposal advocates for the protection of energy and other essential infrastructure. Secondly, it simultaneously calls for the uninterrupted flow of food grains to ensure global food security. Thirdly, the proposal seeks guarantees for the safety of all types of commercial vessels and maritime trade routes in the Black Sea. Thus, India’s proposal points towards a practical solution that would benefit the economies of both Russia and Ukraine and help avert further devastation in the future. Given that Ukraine has already welcomed this proposal, Russia, too, should have no difficulty in accepting it.
The writer is the National Co-convenor of the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch and a former Professor at PGDAV College, University of Delhi; Views presented are personal.