While a Modi versus Mamata battle may have worked well for the BJP at the Lok Sabha level, it may not be that easy at the State level
West Bengal is moving towards a personality clash between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the forthcoming Assembly elections. Both have evolved as cult figures over the years. With no tall State leaders in Bengal, the BJP is following its pet formula of a battle between a regional heavyweight and the BJP mascot Modi. It has tried this formula out in some States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana, with mixed success. On the face of it, next year’s Assembly polls to five States — West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will be a litmus test for the BJP’s expansion plans. But the saffron party’s main focus is on West Bengal where the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is well-entrenched since 2011, when Mamata ousted the CPI(M) which had ruled the State for three decades. Mamata will be seeking a third term in power now.
While a Modi versus Mamata battle may have worked well for the BJP at the Lok Sabha level, it may not be that easy at the State level. For instance, Mamata or “Didi” as she is fondly called, is not like other regional leaders. She is a firebrand leader and there is a method to her madness. She has reduced other Opposition parties like the CPI(M) and the Congress to “zero” in the past decade and is a fierce street fighter. Besides, for more than 45 years, the State has been anti-Centre, which might help Mamata.
On its part, the BJP is upbeat since its performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Bengal was impressive. It won 18 of the 42 seats, just four less than the ruling TMC. Significantly, the BJP’s vote share in the State increased to over 40 per cent in 2019 from a mere two per cent in the 2011 Assembly polls, emerging as the number two party in the State.
The Congress and the CPI(M) had fought the 2016 Assembly elections together, managing to win 76 of the 294 seats and accounting for almost 39 per cent of the vote share. They had, however, split ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This time around, the CPI(M) central committee has given the go ahead for a poll tie-up with all secular parties, including the Congress.
The 2021 election, however, will be difficult for the ruling TMC. The BJP has the advantage of being an “untested challenger.” As a strategy, the BJP is trying to mobilise the anti-incumbency factor against Didi and consolidating Hindu votes. Mamata’s “Paribartan (change)” of 2011 is BJP’s slogan today. It is focussing on issues like graft, commissions and the syndicate raj. The TMC’s alleged corruption seems to be the main poll plank of the BJP. “Aamaar Poribaar, BJP Poribaar (My family, BJP family,)” is the saffron party’s current slogan. It aims to capture the youth through a social media campaign called “Reboot Kolkata” referring to the city’s glorious past. The party is using its army of WhatsApp workers to consolidate the Hindu vote as there are two more major parties in the race as well — the Congress and the CPI(M). However, Mamata’s biggest strength lies in her image as a developmental Chief Minister, which she had created post-Singur and Nandigram with schemes ranging from ‘Kanyashree’ or distribution of cycles to girls of underprivileged families, distribution of rice at a low price, development of roads and so on. During the lockdown, she launched the campaign “Banglar Gorbo Mamata (Bengal’s pride Mamata)”, which involves various meetings with voters, workers and prominent Bengali personalities. The development schemes and her populist image might stand her in good stead.
Mamata has a ready-made issue after Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) would be implemented in Bengal ahead of the Assembly polls. The TMC is planning multiple protests against the CAA and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The TMC, Left and the Congress are also expected to come together and pass a resolution against the NRC in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly.
Mamata’s advantage is her formidable minority base that forms 28 per cent of the population. They matter in 70 to 80 seats. As the BJP plans to polarise the electorate on a communal basis, Mamata will have to guard against the splitting of the minority votes. The AIMIM (All-India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen), which won five seats in Bihar, is planning to contest in Bengal too, which could cut into the Muslim votes. It is too early to predict the West Bengal election scene as clarity will emerge nearer the polls but violence could be expected. An important issue would be how the public perceives the performance of the Mamata Government on containing the pandemic, as it is a burning issue.
The BJP has not won any State since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It lost Maharashtra even after emerging as the single-largest party because of the ego clash with its long-time partner, the Shiv Sena. In the end, the Sena, NCP and the Congress coalition formed the Government. A little ray of sunshine was the fall of the Congress Government in Madhya Pradesh as the BJP installed its Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan after pulling down the Kamal Nath Government. Therefore, winning big in Bihar elections was important for the party and winning Bengal will mean the BJP will continue its eastward expansion.
(The writer is a senior journalist)