The resignation of Sheikh Hasina poses a significant challenge for New Delhi, as it now faces an uncertain political situation in its neighbouring country
While Bangladeshis may be celebrating the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after she was forced to resign and flee the country on Monday, her removal is a huge blow to India. Not only had New Delhi-Dhaka ties flourished under her prime ministership but the Awami League leader had been mindful of India’s strategic interests. She had even tried to keep India's strategic interests in mind vis-Ã -vis China while adroitly balancing relations with both. During her 15 years of unbroken rule, New Delhi-Dhaka ties enjoyed both stability and mutual trust.
But with the army taking charge in Bangladesh and an interim government set to take over, India has a lot to worry about. For one, it now has to deal with a new dispensation after having built a very comfortable working relationship with the Sheikh Hasina government over the last 15 years. Secondly, it will also have to contend with the fact that it is the army that will be exercising actual control even with an interim government in place.
Thirdly, India will be dealing with an entirely new political set-up if and when elections are held in Bangladesh to install a new government. With India having thrown all its weight behind Sheikh Hasina, it may be faced with a huge challenge to build ties with the Opposition parties.
India could also be in deep trouble if the pro-Pakistan Bangladesh National Party (BNP) returns to power. It had recently triggered anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh by carrying out an ‘India Out’ campaign which fortunately fizzled out early. Opposition parties can fan the simmering of these sentiments again, especially given how closely New Delhi was identified with her government.
Indeed, for New Delhi, ties with Dhaka had been a “sonali adhayay” (golden chapter) under Sheikh Hasina who delivered on New Delhi’s expectations, while choosing to downplay India’s inability to deliver on the important Teesta waters sharing agreement. But with a new government in power, all this might change. New Delhi, therefore, will have to deftly manoeuvre its way through a tricky diplomatic situation now. It has no choice but to do so given that it has vital stakes in the stability of Bangladesh, ranging from the economic to the strategic, in a country with which it shares a 4,096-km long border.
It will also be hoped that the situation in Bangladesh will stabilise soon, knowing well that prolonged instability there can have serious security and economic ramifications for India. For instance, taking into account New Delhi’s security concerns, Sheikh Hasina had cracked down on northeast insurgents sheltering in Bangladeshi territory early on in her second stint as PM.
Her government’s relentless pursuit of the pro-Pakistan BNP as well as its ally JeI, also helped India’s security interests. Equally worrying for India has been the rise of other radical Islamist outfits like the Hefazat-e-Islam in Bangladesh, which had organised anti-India protests ahead of PM Narendra Modi’s visit there.
The over one million Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar and are sheltering in Bangladesh too have been a security concern for India. Already home to a sizable number of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, India would also be concerned about a further influx of refugees seeking to flee their troubled country. With five Indian states in the northeast sharing a border with Bangladesh, any such influx could pose a huge security challenge for the region.
Additionally, prolonged turmoil there could hurt Indian efforts to boost connectivity to the NE via Bangladesh using rail links and the sea route. India has for long been seeking alternative routes to bypass the vulnerable Siliguri corridor, which if blocked can cut off land access to its entire NE. The push for shorter routes to the NE via Bangladesh, which would cut down time and costs for the movement of goods, could also receive a setback.
The quota stir has already hit bilateral trade after the movement of trucks was stalled at the land ports. While cross-border trade has now resumed, there have been huge economic losses on either side. Prolonged turmoil can only worsen trading ties between the two countries. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia. In FY 2022-23, the bilateral trade was $15.9 billion, though it remains heavily skewed in favour of India. A lot is at stake for India as its close neighbour witnesses some tectonic changes in its governance and political landscape. It means it will have to put in all its diplomatic and political heft into its outreach to whoever is in charge of the new dispensation in Bangladesh.
(The writer is a senior New Delhi-based journalist writing on foreign affairs)