Multiple stakeholders have attempted to bring peace in Afghanistan but self-interest fails them. Unless they work cohesively, they cannot tame the Taliban which has been flexible in its demands
This year saw all major stakeholders in Afghanistan making tremendous efforts to bring peace to the war-ravaged country, albeit for diverse reasons. The next presidential election is scheduled for April 2019 and President Ashraf Ghani has already announced that he will seek re-election. While he may have taken some tough decisions that may have earned him respect among the political circles, there have been letdowns, too, both on political and security fronts. This is the reason why he has been more determined to bring peace to Afghanistan. And if he succeeds, it will be a major achievement for him and his country as well. In February, Ghani offered the Taliban unconditional peace talks. The Taliban, too, honoured the same and for three days, there was peace during Eid, after 17 years of incessant fighting.
The US, which is fighting its longest war in Afghanistan, appointed Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad as the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation in the US Department of State, to broker peace between the Government and the Taliban. In November, a two-day conference was held in Geneva to discuss developments in Afghanistan. Russia, which was forcibly evicted from Afghanistan about 30 years ago and wanted to show its influence in the region, organised a meeting in Moscow on November 9, in which representatives from 12 countries discussed the Afghan peace process. Although no tangible decision was taken, the participation by the Taliban, representatives of the Afghan Government, China, Iran, Pakistan and India was a great achievement.
Iran, China and Russia, too, want peace in Afghanistan as the Islamic State’s (IS) influence is on the rise. Iran is worried because the IS is a Sunni Salafi terrorist organisation that does not consider Shia Muslims as true believers. It believes the terror organisation will make all efforts to trouble the Shia regime over there. China, on the other hand, is already facing an uprising by Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and does not want IS control in Afghanistan as it will render wholehearted assistance to Uyghur terrorist outfits.
The IS is becoming strong in northern Afghanistan, which is near to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. These countries share a close relationship with Russia. Second, Russia also has a sizeable Muslim population and, hence, escalating IS influence in Afghanistan would be detrimental for Russia.
As regards Pakistan, which always claims that India has no role to play in Afghanistan, and has also alleged that we have been using Afghanistan as a base to instigate terrorist activities in the restive province of Balochistan, it has already acknowledged that India has stakes in Afghanistan and its cooperation is necessary for the peace process in the war-torn country. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, speaking in the National Assembly on December 10, said, “India also has stakes in Afghanistan and its cooperation will be needed.” He also accepted the fact that Pakistan alone cannot bring peace in Afghanistan.
It is a well-known fact that Pakistan has been facing isolation, globally and is also passing through an economic crisis. Its all-weather friend China has refused to extend financial assistance and the International Monetary Fund has put stringent conditions to bail out Islamabad from the economic catastrophe. The US, which has in the past bailed out Pakistan from economic calamity, has also suspended all financial assistance to Islamabad.
The above mentioned factors are a proof why Pakistan wants to show to the world that it wants peace with India and, therefore, it has offered India to start peaceful negotiations and has also accepted our role in Afghanistan.
Islamabad is also happy to receive a letter from US President Donald Trump to assist the peace process in Afghanistan. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan also met Khalilzad on December 5 in Islamabad. In the meeting, Khalilzad requested Khan to make good use of his office so that the Taliban can constructively participate in the peace negotiations. Khan promised to help and accepted that reconciliation is the only way out. Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, too, wants to have cordial relations with the US.
There are also reports that a four-member Taliban delegation from its political office in Qatar also met Khalilzad and several Pakistani officials in Islamabad. The military-controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), which has a close relationship with the top Taliban leadership, is also using its influence over them to win confidence of the US officials.
Pakistan released Abdul Ghani Baradar, a senior Taliban leader, from the prison in order to support peace talks and bring an end to years of fighting. Khalilzad will visit eight countries, which includes Afghanistan, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, to restore peace in the country.
Representatives of the Taliban reiterated their past stand that they do not consider the present Afghan Government as a legitimate one and, hence, they want to negotiate with the US. The Taliban, too, maintained that their fight will continue until all foreign troops and bases are removed from Afghanistan. Taliban representatives accepted that their participation in the conference helped reinforce their international position.
India, which follows the policy that peace talks must be led by the Afghan Government, also amended its strategy in view of the changes in regional and international arena. Two non-official Indian representatives attended the multi-national conference in Moscow where they sat with representatives from the Taliban.
It is by now clear that all key players claim that they want to restore peace in Afghanistan but chances of peace are remote as interested parties are not working cohesively. Their interests are poles apart and clash with each other on several occasions. Khalilzad met Taliban representatives in Qatar and discussed several important issues, including withdrawal of US troops without representatives from the Afghan Government. The US wants peace in Afghanistan but does not want to withdraw completely as in that case, Russia, China and Iran will enhance their domination in the country.
On similar lines, Russia wants to increase its influence in Afghanistan after 30 years of its unceremonious eviction. Moscow wants to contain the IS and also hurt Washington as the latter did 30 years ago. Saudi Arabia has been pumping money to needle Iran, while the latter is busy strengthening Shia outfits. Besides, external forces, like the drug-mafia, also want insurgency to continue as security forces are more involved in fighting the Taliban and the IS.
By sidelining the Afghan Government, the US and Russia have highlighted the incapability and weakness of Kabul. This has been damaging the peace process in Afghanistan. Not only does this marginalise a lawfully-elected Government but gives more legitimacy to the Taliban. In fact, Afghanistan needs a strong Government that has the support of all external powers. Only then can it counter the Taliban and peace can be restored in the country.
On the other hand, the Taliban is not in a hurry to participate in the peace process. US airstrikes are proving counter-productive and the Taliban is getting sympathy of the general public. Some, including Khalilzad, have suggested that the presidential elections be postponed. But this is no solution to peace. Elections must be held and whosoever assumes power must lead the negotiations and peace should be restored under his command.
On the one hand, the Taliban remains highly trained, armed and sheltered by Pakistan and sometimes even by Russia. It can attack several locations simultaneously. On the other, the Afghan Government is quite slow-moving in responding to the attacks by the Taliban. This mitigates the credibility of the Government. Friendly countries must help strengthen the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) as the force remains ill-trained, ill-equipped, less motivated and is also poorly-paid. High desertion rate in the ANDSF speaks volumes about the weaknesses of the force.
(The writer is member of the United Services Institute of India and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)