US intelligence chief James Clapper has warned any new Pakistan-linked terrorist attack against India could trigger a fresh crisis, undoing even the modest progress that the two countries have made since the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008.
Noting that New Delhi and Islamabad have made “calculated decisions” to improve ties, despite their “deep-rooted mistrust”, Clapper said in a report to US Congress that all this could change with another terror strike with links to Pakistan, prompting India to freeze bilateral dialogue. The report observed that while deferring serious discussion on the more contentious issues of territorial disputes and terrorism, the two countries have held a series of meetings in the past year and will probably continue to achieve incremental progress on economic relations, such as trade.
On lashkar-e-Tayyeba, the report noted that this Pakistan-based terror outfit “will continue to be the most multifaceted and problematic of the Pakistani militant groups”.
The group has the long-term potential to evolve into a permanent and even HAMAS/Hizballah-like presence in Pakistan. The observations form part of the US intelligence community’s annual “World Threat Assessment”. In respect of the United States, the report identifies an erratic North Korea and growing cyber attacks as the current major threats. It reckons that the threat from Al Qaeda has diminished.
Commenting on India’s relations with Afghanistan, Clapper’s report says India will continue to support the current Afghan Government to ensure a stable and friendly Afghanistan.
Pointing out that India has consistently ranked in the top three nations that Afghans see as helping their country rebuild, the report refers to New Delhi’s increased engagement with Kabul, marked by the signing of an additional four memoranda of understanding during President Hamid Karzai’s visit to New Delhi last November.
“We judge that India sees its goals in Afghanistan as consistent with US objectives, and favours sustained ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) and US presence in the country,” it said, adding “India will almost certainly cooperate with the US and Afghanistan in bilateral and multilateral frameworks to identify assistance activities that will help bolster civil society, develop capacity, and strengthen political structures in Afghanistan.”