lone wolf attacks are on the rise, the latest being the Nice massacre by a solo truck driver. SHAlINI SAKSENA looks at India’s vulnerability to such individual strikes and explores the reason why it has so far remained unscathed
On Friday, July 15, 2016 the world woke up to yet another horrific attack by a lone truck-driving attacker. This time in Nice, France, where the citizens were celebrating Bastille Day. The 31-year-old Franco-Tunisian Mohamed lahouaiej Bouhlel drove his truck over scores of people for 2 km, killing 84, including 10 children and injuring over 100, before being shot by the police.
This is the third such “lone wolf” attack in 18 months. It is times like these that there is apprehension of the Islamic State arriving to India on the back of radicalised single attackers. “While the attacks in France do not directly increase the risk to India but every attack in this networked world is an example to replicate,” Vikram Sood, former Secretary R&AW, says.
Moreso, when there is an attack closer to home — Dhaka where five militants took hostages and opened fire on the Holey Artisan Bakery killing over 20 people on July 2, 2016. The fact that right after the attack, the head of Al-Qaeda Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) Asim Umar issued a statement inciting Indian Muslims to follow the example of lone wolves in Europe to kill administrative and police officers in India makes the situation rather critical. The report, published by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group, put fear in the minds of the common man as India is extremely vulnerable to any kind of terror attack — by it by an individual or a group.
The lone wolf trend has been on the trot globally with individuals not affiliated to any particular group carry out terror strikes, like the Orlando shooting at a gay bar.
Attacks by individuals are not something new. The US, Canada, Europe, Africa and Middle East have been targeted at regular intervals since as away back as the 1950s. So who are these individuals or lone wolves and how are they different from terrorist groupsIJ
lone wolves are solitary individuals striking random targets. These individuals tend to be men likely to have more than a high school education, and have experienced a recent change, like a lost job, a broken relationship, a move to a new area, or something that altered their traditional life. lone wolves experience some kind of socially dislocating event, often find a new community, either in person or online, with a politically-active group.
Also, even though many terror attacks are labeled lone wolf attacks, that’s not always the case. Some are truly done by loners. Others involve small groups, like a married couple, a father-son team, a pair of friends, or even a small clique. We call these wolf pack attackers. They may swear allegiance to ISIS, Al-Qaeda, or some supremacist group, but the group may not even know about them until after the attack occurs.
“Of course, it helps a group like the Islamic State (IS) to give people the impression that they are directing these attacks. It makes them seem stronger than they may really be,” Professor John A Tures, Political Science, laGrange College in Georgia, USA says. He is the author of several articles on terrorism.
Though it may not be easy to pinpoint the exact reason for the rise in the number of lone wolf attacks, a loner is by implication a highly disturbed person who can be easily and disproportionately be influenced by other people, like his teacher, friend or though the Internet. “Maybe childhood indoctrination by parents, especially if the mother has no education and the father is busy, matters. Maybe the terrorists are encouraging this as these are difficult to detect,” Sood explains.
Tures tells you that when lone wolves were compared with wolf pack attackers, one couldn’t really find a clear broad category pattern to fit one type of attacker. There were differences and similarities.
“We found lone wolves were significantly older, more likely to be single or divorced, and socially isolated. All the lone wolves we found were male. A few wolf pack attackers (12 per cent) were women. lone wolves are more likely to use guns, while wolf pack attackers tend to use a mix of guns, explosives and other weapons. Both types of attackers tend to choose a target not too far from where they live. Wolf pack attackers are more likely to make others aware of their intentions and are slightly more likely to plan out their attacks and identify targets than lone wolves who tend to be more spontaneous. lone wolves are slightly more likely to target people making them more dangerous,” Tures explains.
There are many challenges related to lone wolf attacks. Difficult to identify individuals who are not a part of an organised terror group top the list. Multiplicity of targets and the challenge to protect them, limited means required to undertake a lone wolf strike and the challenge to monitor and stop radical ideology and messaging — all this encourages lone wolf activists.
“Every civilised society can be shocked by individuals influenced by a particular ideology which preaches violence as the means of spreading and implementing it. India has, so far, remained away from the menace of lone wolf attacks for a number of reasons, including a liberal society where minorities are better integrated, a strong family system, larger majority of minority communities propagating peace and amity, etc.
“However, the history of peace is no guarantee against future trouble, primarily due to transnational radicalisation through the social and electronic media. Second, terrorist groups exploit men and women through sophisticated messaging. The third reason is the rise of the Arabic phraseal-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham (Daesh) which means avenging the wrongs against the Muslim society. The disillusionment with what is seen as a pejorative form of religion which according to the radical ideology is responsible for the ills afflicting the Muslims also contributes to the emergence of lone wolf attackers. The fifth reason is the exploitation of local issues closer to people’s daily reality,” retired Col Vivek Chadha, research fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, says.
“Inadequate Intelligence-sharing and resources needed to establish a nationwide monitoring grid, the wide geographical spread of potential lone wolf suspects, the challenge of identifying suspects, especially since a large number emanates from the educated middle class, weakthana policing, no understanding of the issue and the lack of a unified and uniform strategy to fight terror add to India’s weakness to lone wolf attacks,” Chadha feels.
Dr Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management, says it is not just attacks by individuals or the ISIS or the Al-Qaeda that makes India’s position perilous. “India is vulnerable because it is incompetent, has an inadequate anti-terror force and because every Government over the last 30 years has done its best to dismantle our Intelligence and policing apparatus which are the bulwarks against terrorism,” Sahni opines.
Over the years, several studies have been done, any number of recommendations given, commissions and committees set up on what can be done to tackle attacks over decades.
“The problem is in the implementation which is undermined by a political leadership which don’t want an autonomous policing and Intelligence system. Nobody wants a responsive, autonomous and active policing which is answerable only to the law,” Sahni says.
Considering that the last decade has witnessed what is known as the fourth generation of terrorism wherein religion has been exploited to spread hate, it is crucial to have in place proper Intelligence and policing.
“While the emergence of the Islamic State or Daesh appears to have eclipsed the evolution of this wave of terrorism, the resilient strength of the Taliban in the Af-Pak region, terrorist groups like the leT operating with State support from Pakistan, the Al-Qaeda, which was unleashed 9/11, have been pioneers of this form of violence. The characteristic of holding a geographical area is not unique to Daesh as this was perfected much earlier by the Taliban. These groups have evolved in different ways in terms of their method of operations, raising funds, recruitment and expanding their influence. However, one factor which binds all of them is their exploitation of religion as the basis for their relevance and influence,” Chadha opines, adding that the success of the Daesh is related to its methodology which includes quality of messaging, choice of medium to spread it, standing up as a group that relates to the golden age of the Caliphate and transnational spread and influence.
There is a reason why the ISIS loves lone wolves. “They can scare people. Having promotional materials on the Internet means that someone inspired by ISIS can launch an attack on his own and the group can get credit, making countries afraid to of them. Take, how Canada pulled out of Afghanistan after a couple of attacks in the country. The ISIS didn’t train, arm or even direct the attackers. But they got what they wanted as well as the credit. It is terrorism on the cheap, but it has been very effective so far,” Tures points out.
The phenomenon of lone wolf attacks has been on the rise globally but India has remained unscathed. This despite the fact that the ISIS has assiduously targeted Indian youth on the Internet with modest success.
“Fortunately, so far, Indian agencies have been actively monitoring the internet and have been able to forestall many such groups, especially in Hyderabad. However, this self-radicalisation drive and the tendency to use lone wolf attacks will increase even as the ISIS suffers militarily on set piece battles on the ground in Syria and Iraq. Its only recourse to hit back then would be via terrorism. The ISIS is also targeting the massive Indian diaspora in the Middle East and there are strong chances of some youth either being subverted or blackmailed into joining the ISIS. People are generally not aware that the ISIS ideology and folklore lays great emphasis on Ghazwa-e-Hind, the final battle for the Muslim reconquest of India. A great deal of its discourse deals with the apocalyptic battles in Khorasan. The ISIS has threatened to buy or steal nuclear war heads from Pakistan and use them for acts of terror as part of its end-of-the-world ideology. This is the world’s ultimate nightmare,” retired Maj Gen GD Bakshi says.
What makes ISIS dangerous is that it is the only terrorist organisation in the world that directly controls territory and administers a State the size of Britain. “It has an annual income of approximately $3 billion. It has invested heavily in propaganda on the Internet where its propaganda magazine Dabiq and its motivators have been spewing venom to attract gullible Muslim youth the world over. Its emphasis has been on self-radicalisation of susceptible individuals and motivating them to become lone wolf attackers who are generally not on the security agencies radars. The handlers identify vulnerable individuals and work on them assiduously. They purvey information on bomb making etc on the net- especially the use of explosives like ammonium nitrate and triacetone triperoxide. They even encourage these people to use their cars as battering rams to kill people. Such attacks have occurred in Australia, Canada and the US. They are difficult to discover because a lone wolf attacker has a very small signature on the Internet and little communications which could give warnings of impending attacks,” Bakshi tells you.
This changes the face of terrorism, making it more imminent, more undetectable and more faceless. “Terrorism in the Cold War era was about doing something horrific and hoping the evening news cameras and anchormen would send reporters to cover it. Then their message would be heard. With the social media, the terrorists can speak directly to their audience, unfiltered. That’s what’s so scary about social media and terrorism. Also, today, terrorists crave an audience and now they can communicate with it more directly. We also know about events more quickly and feel a personal connection. Our responses get a quick response across the world. Terrorism is no longer a domestic affair limited to States like Israel or libya. It’s a global phenomenon,” Tures tells you.
The reason why India has thus far remained untouched by lone wolf attacks is because mindsets and cultures matter. “The fact that a sub-culture of extremist violence has not taken root in India is a consequence of the nature of Muslims in the country. It is not because some extraordinary work has been done by the State. We find that Muslim families have come forward and said that they have problems with their children taking the wrong path. local communities have held back, all leading orthodox Muslim organisations have condemned the ISIS and what it represents. There is no institution or large movement of focused radicalisation that has survived or grown in India. On the very extreme fringes, you have a few individuals who have been mobilised by the Internet — beheadings, etc — and decided that this is what they want to do and have gone so by joining somebody in Syria or Iraq. If they didn’t do this, they would be a part of a gang and do something equally bad,” Sahni says.
The AQIS chief trying to incite Indian Muslims after the Dhaka incident, according to Sahni, is an act of desperation from the Islamic State.
“Al-Qaeda has been talking about bringingjihad to India since 1996. Where is itIJ One should not get caught up with catchy phrases like wolf pack or lone wolf. The thing is not to provoke such kind of hysteria with theatrical ideas but to see what the actual trend is. If one can establish a trend of lone wolf attacks in India then there is a threat. If there is no trend, to say that IS coming is merely communal prejudice which has no root in ground reality,” Sahni insists.
Similar incendiary statements have been issued by Umar earlier too, the last being in 2014. “He has already declared India a part of the great vilayat of Khorasan. Are you going to judge an organisation’s threat by its declarations or by its capabilitiesIJ” Sahni asks.
He terms the AQIS call as whining. “Why have the Indian Muslims not reacted to such callsIJ AQIS has said it doesn’t have the capacity to operate in India. A terrorist will attack when he is desperate and ascendant. His objective is to do damage. The Government’s responses have to be defined by concrete capacities of terrorists or groups with potential to strike and not by mere calls and declarations,” Sahni says.
Sood seconds Sahni on India being safe from lone wolf attacks because, all said and done and despite all the country’s problems, the Muslim population does not feel threatened. “It is pretty much amalgamated and has quite often the same problems as the rest of us. They give no support to the Pakistan-led Kashmir cause. We can also say we have been lucky so far,” Sood says.
To tackle these individuals, there are two issues that India needs to focus on. “Immediate operational steps and long-term measures. The immediate steps include issues related to policing, Intelligence grid, e-monitoring, international cooperation etc. However, long-term steps will prove effective eventually. These include de-radicalisation measures, ensuring equal rights for minorities, generating employment opportunities for the youth, creating and evolving counter-propaganda messaging, monitoring and positively influencing the schools and religious seminaries in the country,” Chadha says.