Ever since Pakistan started fomenting trouble in Kashmir and executed terror attacks in metropolises across India, New Delhi has been observing strategic restraint. For nearly half his term in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to do the same. However, for the first time in the history of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism against India, the pre-emptive surgical strikes across the loC, approved by Modi broke the psychological barrier in the political and diplomatic corridors of New Delhi, and gave Indian defence and foreign policy a realist turn.
Modi’s turn from strategic restraint to strategic offence thus needs to be analysed in its true essence, away from the shameful political tug-of-war that the strike has been subjected to. “Neighbourhood-first” became the primary focus of the Modi foreign policy. Invitation to SAARC leaders — especially Nawaz Sharif’s presence at Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in 2014 generated hopes that the two countries would engage in dialogue. But just as Vajpayee was back-stabbed by Sharif and General Parvez Musharraf in Kargil in 1999, Modi was betrayed with terror attacks in Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Uri.
In an attempt to ease tensions between the two countries, Modi met Sharif on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in Ufa in Russia in July, 2015, where they agreed to tackle terrorism together. The two leaders also met in Paris on the sidelines of the COP21. This was followed by a hush-hush meeting between NSA Ajit Doval and Gen (Retd) Nasir Janjua in Bangkok. The high point came on December 25, 2015, when Modi decided to airdrop in Islamabad to greet Sharif on his birthday. This honeymoon period for the two leaders, ended in a tragedy with the attack on the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot on January 2, 2016.
Much to the consternation of Indian security experts, India bent backwards and invited Pakistan’s special investigation team (SIT) to India to investigate the Pathankot attack. This was never done before. As expected, Pakistan washed its hands of the attack. The flip-flops in Modi’s Pakistan policy were visible and severely criticised by all parties. Modi had invested heavily in Sharif, but to no avail. The stage was set to enact part two of Modi foreign policy.
The Modi-Doval duo took their diplomatic offensive deep inside Pakistan on the issue of Balochistan. During his Independence Day speech, Modi set the ball rolling by cornering Islamabad diplomatically. The doctrine of “offense as defence” is now operational. Indian diplomacy had changed gears, but Pakistan continued with its unconventional methods of fighting India. The Uri attack was the trigger that made India go full throttle to corner Pakistan diplomatically.
On the one hand, at UNGA, India dubbed Pakistan as an ivy league of terrorism, on the other, at Kozikode, Kerala, Modi invited Islamabad to join India to fight poverty and promote mutual economic growth. The signals emanating from the political corridors in New Delhi were mixed. Modi deceived Pakistan into believing once again that India will not act, but wasted no time in breaking India’s strategic restraint and hitting back with a counter strike deep inside PoK.
India has raised the stakes for Pakistan. It has an edge over the latter on the strategic escalation ladder and on the diplomatic front. New Delhi also silenced Islamabad’s nuclear saber-rattling. However, politicisation of the military operation has showcased the ugliest side of Indian politics.
The “khoon ki dalali” comment by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and demanding proof of the surgical strike depicted the political bankruptcy and frustration of the Opposition. On the other hand, a dualism is operational from the BJP camp. Modi has not made any public statement on the surgical strikes and has reportedly asked his Cabinet colleagues to avoid chest thumping on the issue. He also avoided any reference to the military operation at his Dussehra speech in lucknow.
Back in May 2014, Modi had started building his Government’s foreign policy on Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s mantra of “shanti” (peace) and “shakti” (power). It was Pakistan who chose not to be part of Modi’s efforts. New Delhi was forced to add deception and surprise elements to its policy towards Islamabad. Conveying the change of approach of New Delhi and India’s intent towards Pakistan was a must for Modi to make an unequivocal declaration of India’s no-tolerance policy against terror. Electoral benefit to BJP in upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections is likely to be a natural, yet unintentional outcome. The 1971 war enhanced Indira Gandhi’s image, the 1999 Kargil conflict enhanced Vajpayee’s image so is the surgical strike likely to benefit the BJP.
Unfortunately, prominent political parties in UP have failed to look at the national security issue beyond modest electoral gains. The PM performed his duties. Had he not, questions would have been raised about his credibility and the powerful mandate he was given to govern the country. In run up to the UP elections, political bickering has just begun. Electoral battle lines drawn on religious issues in a communally sensitive State like UP will do more harm to India’s national security. Another Hindu-Muslim riot under Modi’s leadership would certainly weaken his Government’s diplomatic efforts.
Modi is performing his part of rajdharma as PM, but is the Opposition performing its rajdharmaIJ
(The author is Research Fellow with Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. Views expressed are personal)