South Sudan, apart from being the youngest member of the UN, is a vast country with prominent ethnic fault lines and largely marked by roadless countryside. Many thought that South Sudan rose as a country against the backdrop of the centuries of exploitation and slave-raiding by the Arab North against the African South, and subsequently fell into the imperialist meddling of Great Britain and Egypt. They thought that it may never be able to come out of the “ghost” of endemic war. Nevertheless, with religion, race, colonialism, economic exploitation, lopsided development and ethnic divide prevalent, it is making all the more difficult to explain the saga of current crisis in the impoverished nation.
On July 7, just two days before celebrating the fifth birth anniversary of the nation, a checkpoint shootout between the two rival factions, representing President Salva Kiir and the first Vice-President Riek Machar, ended in the death of five soldiers who were loyal to the President. On the very next day, a fierce gun battle took place on the presidential premise, when both the President and the Vice-President were engaged in a talk. This was just the beginning and it simply came to hit the capital city of Juba with the killing of innocent civilians along with the soldiers loyal to both the leaders.
It is heartening to know that UN Peacekeeping Mission is badly failing to protect ordinary civilians across the nation. Today around 12,000 UN peacekeeping troops are deployed in South Sudan, but more and more civilians are looking for their own uniformed security men for a better guarantee of their life and liberty. Why is it soIJ First of all, the UN displacement camps largely reflect ethnic divisions that played the major role in the current civil war. Mostly tens of thousands of people have been looking for shelter in these camps are members of the Nuer ethnic group (represented by Machar) who are easy targets for Government forces in Juba since the day South Sudan’s civil strife began in 2013.
Secondly, since then the UN Peacekeeping Mission has drawn its worst-ever criticisms for failing to protect the refugees in one of its camps in the city of Malakal in February this year. It so happened that Dinka men supplied Kalashnikovs inside the Malakal camp and encouraged its own community men to kill either Nuers or the Shilluk people in one of the most inhuman attacks ever in a UN refugee base. Two investigations conducted by the UN recorded that some peacekeepers had retreated from their posts and the rest of the troops awaited orders from their respective headquarters. Both the instances led to the violation of the mandate already well laid out by the UN Security Council to protect the civilians, by using even deadly force, if required.
Third, beyond this, calling for a “Unity of Command” and the African Union’s idea of deploying more regional forces with a stronger mandate than that of the current UN peacekeeping troops may be an idea to grapple with the ground reality. But at the same time, President Kiir has declined to accept any more international forces and it may further deteriorate the situation. Indeed, Machar’s forces have been fast driven out of Juba and since then some Opposition members who are currently serving as ministers have been intimidated by the forces. As the Opposition leader is hiding, a peace plan cannot simply work and the efforts will be one-sided. Therefore, most of the Africa observers feel that the very idea of the unity of command is a mere fictitious one and in all likelihood, it will not help in bringing back Kiir and Machar together.
Fourth, in May 2014, the UN Security Council had voted in a rare move to change the missions mandate from nation-building to civilian protection in South Sudan. Thereby, the UNSC had authorised its peacekeepers to use force and hence, the international community was expecting a much better response in regard to the safety of the common people, particularly women and children who were generally the targets. Despite making efforts and reprioritising protection, the UN mission in South Sudan is constantly facing insurmountable challenges, simply because of the deteriorating security scenario and its complex relationship with the Government of Kiir, which itself is a party to this tragedy.
Fifth, more than half of South Sudan’s nearly 12 million people live below the poverty line and it is worsening every day. Today, skyrocketing inflation is barely making the basic minimum food stuff accessible for the ordinary South Sudanese people. Besides, the cholera epidemic is fast becoming a lethal threat to the displaced ethnic communities in a much bigger way. The UN needs to work round the clock to facilitate proper healthcare to the victims.
Finally, as always, the tricky part for the UN is the handling of the countries that are sending forces for such sensitive missions. Now countries that are supplying forces to Sudan are India, Ethiopia and Rwanda. Therefore, it is the responsibility of the UN to better coordinate with these nations and their respective field commanders for managing the South Sudan bases so that civilian causalities can be minimised. After the Malakal saga, the Undersecretary General for Peacekeeping, ladsous, was supposed to take some actions, but nothing has happened so far. Truly, inaction from an agency of the global governance institution of this stature is disgusting and this itself demands a through enquiry.
Is it an ethnic fight between the Dinkas and the Nuers, respectively represented by Kiir and MacharIJ The ethnic fight that started way back in December 2013 has so far forced two million people to leave their homes, with nearly 2,00,000 living inside the UN bases. Since then the war atrocities, mostly perpetrated on ethnic lines, are taking place in the north and east part of the country. The most dismal trend set by this conflict is that it is recruiting child soldiers, and women are increasingly becoming the major victims across these regions.
Will there be a pragmatic solution to putting an end to this bloodshedIJ Will this war continue till the next election in the country in 2018IJ Will it be possible for the UNSC to provide a better ring of protection to the displaced peopleIJ Or once again policy-makers at the UN, who are mostly coming from the advanced nations, will abandon this civil war as another African burdenIJ But then how longIJ The answers to all these intractable questions do not lie beyond the reach of the two warring leaders — Kiir and Machar — first and then to UNSC members and finally to the members of the African Union. Today, efforts to end the economic plight of the people are badly hampered because peace and security remain the cornerstone for focusing on to the road to development. The problem at the root lies with the very foundation of the Republic of South Sudan. When this new country was born basically it came out of the long-held historic movement known as the Sudan People’s liberation Movement (SPlM) which began way back in 1983. The SPlM was the political wing of an army fighting the war against Sudan for independence. Sadly, the SPlM has remained divided while struggling for power and protection to the cronies of both Kiir and Machar. Thus since South Sudan attained independence in 2011, the movement has worked less like a political party and probably more like two warring factions who are constantly up in arms against their past rivals.
On July 25, Machar was replaced as the first Vice-President with is ex-Minister of Mining Taban Deng Gai, in a procedure called as illegal by his officials, but surprisingly acceptable to President Kiir. As Machar did not respond to the 48 hours ultimatum given by Kiir to resurface, so he had to appoint someone as the Vice-President for running the Government. Instead accusations are made against Kiir that his forces are on a massive hunt to locate Machar and that is why the latter is demanding the presence of a third party force for safely returning to Juba. But the need of the hour is that the South Sudanese forces loyal to Kiir must put an end to the spree of killing members of the Sudan People’s liberation Army in Opposition (SPlA-IO) led by Machar. It is a good gesture on the part of the SPlA-IO that they are not interested in spearheading the crisis and in turn asking President Kiir to call off his forces from the ground. Apart from this, Gai appears to move beyond the provisions of the peace agreement that requires the two armies of Kiir and Machar to follow it for 18 months to resolve the present crisis. However it goes against the peace agreement. Therefore, the UN is issuing a stern warning to the South Sudanese Government for replacing Machar with Gai, fearing it may escalate the tensions in the war ravaged country. Hope peace prevails over tense coexistence of two rival armies soon.
(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, New Delhi)