Now, the Trump Administration is sending up to 5,000 more troops to Afghanistan in addition to the 8,400 Americans who are already there... This change of strategy in the US policy-making has not been made without active lobbying of Indian leadership
The city of Kabul is looking like a city of ghosts, says a photo journalist. One after another blasts have created desperation among the common people of Afghanistan. The Taliban insurgency and a growing Islamic State (ISIS) presence have spanned further. The United States spent almost $700 billion in the first 13 years of the war in Afghanistan. Still, Afghan forces lack the manpower, equipment and training needed to take back large areas of territory from Taliban control. Attacks like massive bombing in Kabul a fortnight ago are increasingly aimed at demoralising Afghan security forces and reducing their will to fight. The attacks are more due to change of guard in Afghanistan. The frequency of attack could be seen as an act of desperation on the part of ISIS terrorists. There were five major attacks in the capital in the past one year.
The current condition proved the fact that security environment in Afghanistan is precarious. The ascending order of violence from 2015 to 2016 and more in the first half of 2017 made it clear that the Taliban are gaining ground against the Government. There is a recent survey conducted by the United Nations under which more than 40 per cent land of Afghanistan is out of Government control. The southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan are under the control of Taliban. Afghanistan faces the brunt of its proximity with Pakistan. Af-Pak has been the motherboard of all kinds of terrorism. The security environment in rural areas is deteriorating while the urban areas and their lines of communication remain secure despite a growing Taliban threat.
According to the UN, with more than 11,000 civilians killed, the terrorist groups started manoeuvring once it was declared that the US would withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. Several extremist groups, such al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS, have a presence in Afghanistan. ISIS and other groups —Tehreek-e-Taliban, lashkar-e-Tayyeba, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrara — have increased their presence in Afghanistan. The Taliban are the largest of these groups and continues to wage war against the Afghan Government.
From 2014 to 2015, an attempt had been made to realign the external forces with China-Pak synergy in the driving seat. India was intentionally blocked by the new group. Pakistan was using its network and arsenals accumulated on the name of Afghanistan against India. Since India was getting affected by Afghanistan issue, there has been fundamental tilt from 2015 to 2017 on the line of Indian thinking towards Afghanistan. India has been planning to develop human resources in Afghanistan. It has designed peaceful initiatives to combat Taliban spreading its wings in Afghanistan, especially in Eastern and Southern parts.
There is fundamental change in the power structure of the world which led to building new alliances. According to Russia, Taliban are no longer Russia’s enemy in Afghanistan but have become a proxy, and Pakistan is no longer an adversarial power threatening the security of Central Asia but a collaborator. The symptom of new great game has resurfaced in Afghanistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi played a very important role in changing the dynamics of Afghanistan and the US mindset under the India-America strategic rubric.
Now, the Trump Administration is sending up to 5,000 more troops to Afghanistan in addition to the 8,400 Americans who are already there. India-America is not willing to provide any political space to Taliban. After the West Asia imbroglio, the Afghan issue has been put on the back burner with the world powers paying less attention. The Obama Administration had declared withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. This idea has been changed with the change of leadership in the US. Trump is keen to send more forces to Afghanistan. This change of strategy in the US policy-making has not been made without active lobbying of Indian leadership. Now America does not talk of leaving Afghanistan in hands of Pakistan and China. The strategic ties between India and the US have realigned the external powers in Afghanistan.
Second, India organised Heart of Asia Summit in Amritsar last year. The Amritsar Conference squarely blamed Pakistan for vitiating the political decorum in Afghanistan through its nefarious design of terror outfits. That is how the major declarations of Amritsar moved around on Pakistan’s undeclared war against India and Afghanistan. The Summit identified Pakistan-based lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Haqqani network as main culprits. India and Afghanistan launched a stinging attack on a virtually isolated Islamabad for sponsoring and supporting terrorism. Modi also asked the international community to demonstrate strong collective will to defeat terror networks that cause bloodshed and spread fear as silence and inaction against terrorism in Afghanistan and in the region will only embolden terrorists and their masters.
Third, Modi has exposed Pakistan’s in-depth policy on Afghanistan. The Haqqani network, in nexus with the Taliban’s al-Qaeda and ISIS, has a sanctuary in Afghanistan. The Taliban and the Haqqani network have benefitted from a sanctuary in Pakistan where their leaders reside and from where they receive some aid from Pakistan. The group has presence in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan provinces as Helmand, Kandhar, Zabul Paktika, Ghazni and Nuristan.
Fourth, India has been supplier of technical resources in Afghanistan. It was actively engaged in helping Afghanistan stand on its own feet and move forward. It was also promoter of soft power but never thought of providing military support to Afghanistan. Modi has changed the image of India. Now it is willing to be hard power. Successive Indian Governments have encouraged the United States to steadfastly prosecute the military campaign in Afghanistan. The US has agreed and given green signal for military role of India in Afghanistan. This will change the image of India which has been soft- peddling Afghanistan. That will target the groups which are stationed in Pakistan.
Fifth, India has also exposed the Pakistan-China strategy and redesigned new dynamics of external powers in favour of India. China stepped up its engagement with Afghanistan in 2011 based on a perception that the US was likely to leave the country before its situation was stabilised. Nonetheless, China’s interests in Afghanistan remain a relatively low priority and are focused mainly on mitigating the risk to stability in western China and to its Belt and Road initiative. China’s off hand approach in Afghanistan is visible.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani organised an international conference on peace talks after the deadly blast in Kabul. In the talks, he said, “We are fighting 20 transnational terrorist groups.” He blamed western countries for attempting to negotiate with the Taliban on their own. “There are too many players running too many parallel tracks with too little clarity on who they are and what they represent,” Ghani said. “We also ask that you respect the integrity of an Afghan-owned and led consolidated process and not set up separate tracks of your own,” he added. Under the new mantra of peace, the Afghan President endorsed Modi’s doctrine.
Despite China’s low priority in Afghanistan, its volumes of investment are four times larger than India. New Delhi cannot afford to replace America in running the show. India cannot sustain a massive presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan is seen as the regional problem as the country’s military is accused of aiding the Taliban but the growing presence of the so-called ISIS in Afghanistan seems to be a game changer as it gives Pakistan the opportunity to rally its neighbours around its own line. The best bet for India in Afghanistan is America-India-Afghanistan trajectory, working in tandem with external and internal forces. It is good to hear that Ghani talks in the same language as the Indian PM.
They categorically agreed that Pakistan is the source of all problems. Taliban is backed by Pakistan. Pakistan’s double game has been exposed by Modi. Now China’s hands off approach are also visible. India-US ties are gaining new space in Afghanistan. India’s military role would be new twists in the region. This will not merely control Pakistan’s in-depth strategy in Afghanistan but also weaken its funding from outside. The truth is that this dynamic is dependent on the changing dynamics of world politics. India has to get the support of the US and other powers, including Iran, to be a dominant power in Afghanistan.
(The writer is Head of the Department of Political Science, Central University of Haryana)