The hereditary Marxist monarchy led by the third generation Kim is once again trying to create chaos in the continent. Kim Jong Un’s current actions can well be termed either as confusing or alarming for the international community at best. The regime thrives on such weird ideas that the grandfather of the present tyrant Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994, is still alive and he is considered as “eternal President” of the country. Not only this, just to celebrate Grand Pa’s birthday on April 15 this year, he simply ordered warplanes to fly across the country to spell out his age i.e. 105. Also a huge military parade combined with missiles was taken out for the same occasion. A country which still believes that only arms can guarantee peace is of course going to wreak havoc not only for its citizens but also for the rest of the world, especially for its immediate neighbours.
Professor Daivd C Gompert rightly said four years back about the possible impact of a North Korean crisis: “The State (North Korea), as we know, it may not survive for long. Yet given its paranoia, the Kim regime can be expected to strike at its enemies. On top of a possible human apocalypse in the North, the stakes for the United States include the security of South Korea and of US forces there; the control of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons; Japan’s security; US standing in East Asia; the intervention of China in Korea; the future of Sino-American relations and prospects for a unified and democratic Korea. These are all possible consequences in the event of a North Korean regime break up. But then if at all these unfold, will the international community be ready to counter the madness of KimIJ Probably not. The reason behind is that he will do anything to save his power and position and very quickly at the cost of his impoverished population. Then, this will surely lead to one of the worst humanitarian tragedy of the world ever.
At the moment the way Kim is provoking the world is just unbelievable. However, his motives are quite clear. Therefore, dealing with the bellicose junior “God-King” would be one of the toughest tasks for US President Donald Trump. Also, this crisis will be one of the biggest tests for Trump to handle relations with China. He needs to be too careful while handling globe-trotting Chinese President Xi Jinping as he has already sent enough indications that he is covertly or overtly challenging the Pax Americana in Asia. It has been observed that last time China considered itself as powerful as it feels today, when Abraham lincoln was very much in the White House. Then the great Chinese emperor rightly believed that China ruled everyone under heaven. But today after a century and a half, when the world has witnessed the continued dominance of the Western powers with their much publicised and well-established tools of liberal credentials supported by money and muscle power, China has assiduously achieved its sense of being great. However, this time the world is largely dominated by America. Therefore, while rebuilding relations with China, Trump needs to be cautious as the former is demanding a much greater role in the new world order, particularly in the East Asia.
Keeping these factors in mind, policy-makers in Washington have to script a role for China instead of just demonising the regional hegemon. America needs to understand that China will not gain anything if North Korean regime falls or the tyrant provokes a nuclear arms race which finally may force both South Korea and Japan to start theirs. For now, Washington must firmly air that Uncle Sam’s blessings will always be there behind these two old regional allies. Globally, the US and its allies must see to it that any attempt to oust a ruler generally backfires and mostly this has proved to be too costly for both the external forces and for the locals. Most of the warring nations of West Asia have fast passed into abyss when the US-led operations aimed at regime change. Thus, when it comes to North Korea, Trump must open all channels either to completely freeze or to gradually roll back the nuclear programme rather than trying for a regime change.
Recognising China’s influence at the global stage by American leadership would do more good to the latter and to its allies in Asia. While dealing with the world’s youngest supreme leader in Pyongyang, China’s help is crucial. China accounts for 85 per cent of North Korea’s foreign trade and is the only country in the region, which could easily cut its oil supply. North Korea is China’s ally and it does not like the Kim rule, but it also wants to see it survive. For long, Beijing continues to prevent any attempt to reunite both the Koreas. If it happens like that of erstwhile two Germanys, China will lose its buffer and one fine day, American forces will land up on its border. For all these reasons, why Xi, but any Chinese leader, will see to it that the Kim dynasty continues to rule Pyongyang. As commoners strongly believe that Kims bring stability to their country and they are no less than “divine kings” who have a right to rule over them, their regime will continue. Though digital media, through pirated networks sponsored by various outside agencies, are already penetrating the hermit kingdom, this will have very less chances of shaking the blood-drenched dictator. Nevertheless, the Western nations, civil society groups and human rights agencies must continue their campaigns against the “mad king” and offer outlets to his people to know about the outside world.
Trump can do very little to change the mindset of Kim and his army. So far, it has been proved that economic sanctions imposed on his country could no way stop his wild acts. In such a situation, we should not think that a badly wounded Communist leadership in North Korea would merely bark; it is a false comfort both for the neighbours (Japan and South Korea) and for America as well. Unlike a failed State where there is a possibility of implosion, North Korea could probably explode. As of now there are no good options to tackle Kim junior, but for considering the least bad ones will require a fine understanding of the regime and the Asian geopolitical jigsaw wherein the solution will fit.
Even if the current crisis comes to an end, either through Chinese mediation or through American pressure, the underlying problem of a crippled North Korean State will remain forever. This will only be solved when the Kim dynasty is removed from power. But for this, there has to be an international arrangement to oversee that a smooth transfer to a civilian Government takes place. It demands the involvement of all civilian actors, regional powers, particularly China and most importantly, an international coalition forces under the supervision of the UN.
(The writer teaches Sociology at OP Jindal Global University in Sonepat)