The Hassan Rouhani Government and the Barack Obama Administration are trying hard to reach a final nuclear agreement, but as mutual trust remains elusive, massive efforts are in full swing to reach a consensus in the ongoing talks in Vienna that has been extended for seven more days. White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest expressed confidence that a deal is within reach. But Iran’s President Rouhani pointed out that the ongoing parleys between Iran and P5+1 (the US, Russia, China, Britain, and France, plus Germany) in Vienna can lead to a win-win result only if all stakeholders play a positive role and show political will to resolve the issue.
Rouhani stressed, “Nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 can bear fruits within the next couple of days,” and pointed out as Iran and the P5+1 have succeeded to resolve the “major part of the issue”, the remaining disagreements can be achieved through initiatives worked out by both sides. On July 2, 2015, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister and one of the members of the negotiation team Majid Takht Ravanchi claimed a breakthrough in discussion in Vienna but admitted that a few more issues need to be addressed. The same day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif underlined that the nuclear negotiations are making progress and hoped Tehran and the world powers will reach a final deal soon.
However, a few days later, Zarif sternly asserted if the deal is not achieved, “the US will lose a major opportunity. But, for us, our citizen is habituated to managing sacrifices to preserve its dignity and its rights.” He went on to say, “It’s not about nationalism or chauvinism, it’s simply about having historical depth; if the diplomacy fails, it won’t be the end of the world.”
While negotiations between Iran and P5+1 go on, the domestic challenges have come to the fore even harsher, but it is not new in both the countries. Hardliners from both sides have been criticising the interim nuclear deal signed on November 24, 2013. US officials and hardliners stressed that no deal would be possible unless it blocks all Iranian road to developing a nuclear bomb and guarantees a strong foolproof monitoring system.
The biggest hurdle for Iran is to deal with the West’s demand to allow IAEA inspectors access to Iranian military sites and subject itself to their queries about Tehran’s past activities that may have been related to weapons research. Western negotiators have already told that removal of some of the sanctions would depend on Iran’s cooperation.
However, as a setback to West’s wishes, Iranian parliament (Majlis) recently passed a resolution that there would be no compromise on safeguarding the country’s nuclear achievements. A whopping majority of parliamentarians voted in favour of the Bill. Iran’s Judiciary Chief and brother of Majlis speaker Sadeq Amoli larijani praised the legislators for approving a Bill on June 23, 2015, which empowers the Rouhani Government to defend the country’s nuclear rights in its negotiations with the world powers.
According to the Bill, the results of Iran’s nuclear talks would be considered valid if the following requirements are met transparently: first, the full and absolute removal of sanctions should be mentioned in the text of agreement and be implemented with immediate effect. Second, IAEA is authorised to make routine and normal visits to the nuclear sites, while access to the military, security and sensitive non-nuclear places is forbidden and the consents of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) should be regarded. Third, according to articles 77 and 125 of the Constitution, the outcomes of the deal should be presented to the Majlis and the foreign minister is required to report the trend of the implementation of the agreement to the parliament every 6 months. Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Tehran will neither accept a 10-year-long constraint on its nuclear activities nor IAEA verification of its undertakings as acceptable terms for a deal. He also said all the sanctions against Iran should be removed immediately after the deal, no matter they are related to the UN Security Council or the US Congress or the US administration. He also underlined that the US has made a complicated, multi-layered and disaffect formula for the lifting of the sanctions with no assured result for Iran, “but we state our points in very explicit terms.”
He said, “Negotiation and deal means give and take. Of course, we accept to give some points in return but on the condition that the nuclear industry is not halted or harmed.”
Khamenei’s statements came when he was addressing a meeting with heads of the three branches of government and senior state and military officials. It is noteworthy to mention here that the Rouhani Government cannot take final decision on nuclear issues alone. It is Khamenei, who takes the final decision so his statements have taken as a verdict by Iranian negotiator team.
In Iran, there is clear division between the hardliners who are sceptical of the final outcome of the N-talks, whereas the moderates have called it as proof of their choice of Rouhani as the President of Iran. US allies in the region, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, are cynical about the final outcome. There are two divergent views in Iran. One group believes that the US is playing a negative role in the region and its presence in the region has created the present crisis. Iranians blame the US for the rise of terrorist groups in the region, and they see it as an American ploy to undermine the power of regional countries, especially Iran. Another group believes that a nuclear deal and cooperation between the US and Iran will solve the major problems of the region, including spread of terror groups like ISIS. Without doubt it could be argued that relations between Iran and the US, frozen for decades, have improved since the election of moderate Rouhani as Iran’s President with the latter’s vows to pursue a policy of “constructive engagement” with the West.
Rouhani looks straight, and has shown sincere attempt to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue. The Iranian people and international community too hope for change. However, cooperation between the two countries would be possible only if a nuclear deal is finalised. Despite hard work from both sides, experts are still doubtful about the final deal because of experience of the decades of distrust and scepticism between the two countries.
Despite internal challenges and opposition especially by conservatives and hardliners, the Rouhani Government seems to have committed to fulfilling his promises made during his presidential election campaigns. Rouhani is working hard to conclude the nuclear deal and uplift the economic conditions of fellow Iranians; and this will be possible only when economic sanctions against Iran are lifted. A successful nuclear deal could help ease decades of hostility between Iran and the West. After the Islamic Revolution, Tehran has been kept under US’ unilateral sanctions and those of the UNSC and European Union. The sanctions have broken the backbone of Iran’s economy.
Nuclear deal and India’s prospects
India is concerned about the recent development in the region. India has always welcomed prospects of improved relations between Iran and the US. The US-Iran tension is a significant factor in the political and strategic relations between India and Iran. Though the tension is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, it is pertinent for India to understand that there is a possibility that the present hostility may change to some kind of rapprochement anytime in future especially in the light of recent development. It is expected that head of the two States will meet this month in Russia on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. It will be the first-ever meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Both India and Iran are expected to get full membership of the SCO at the summit as committed by member-States earlier. Presently both India and Iran have observer status in the SCO.
India has already signalled that New Delhi is interested in maintain and strengthen its relations with Iran. The Modi Government has taken initiative and sent Minister for Shipping and Road Transport & Highways Nitin Gadkari to Teheran on May 6, 2015, to sign a memorandum of understanding worth $195 million for the development of Chabahar port situated in south-eastern Iran.
Gadkari has already announced that India is willing to invest in Iran, especially in ports, roads, railway projects, and hoped that India-Iran cooperation in Chabahar can help strengthen bilateral relations. India’s Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj too is expected to visit Iran this month for a NAM ministerial summit. However, relations between the two countries and decision on major project especially Chabahar port and North-South transport corridor would also depend upon ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna. If sanctions against Iran are lifted, the benefit will percolate to India as well, especially in the energy sector.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Views expressed here are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDSA.)