Area-wise it is the smallest lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh, but the battle in Rampur — the seat of the Rohilla Nawabs which has long been the pocket borough of the Congress — has become the battlefield for the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Though the prince of Rampur, Kazim Ali Khan, is in the fray from the Congress seat, local analysts believe that the seat — which has been away from the Congress’ hold since 2004 —could swing anywhere between the SP which held it for 10 years, and the BJP, when it goes to poll on April 17.
It is purely the Narendra Modi factor which has brought the saffron party into the reckoning here as the party’s prime ministerial candidate has managed to generate the curiosity of people, especially among the youth. This is a significant gain for the BJP considering that it has 49 per cent Muslim population.
Till 2004, Rampur had been the Congress’ backyard as Kazim Ali Khan’s father, the erstwhile Nawab Zulfiqar Ali Khan, won the seat five times while his mother Begum Noor Bano won twice. She, however, lost consecutively in 2004 and 2009 to film actress Jaya Prada from the SP.
This time the BJP, which traditionally along with the BSP has not been a significant player in Rampur, has shot up in the reckoning owing to the Modi wave. In 2009, BJP senior leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi had finished fourth from here.
How things have changed since then can be gauged from the reactions of the local youth in a small town, Milak, which is on the outskirts of Rampur. “It is time to puncture the cycle,” says a young and sprightly Suresh Gangwar, as he alights from his bicycle at the local health centre situated in Milak even as a Congress convoy passes by through the highway.
Gangwar butts in between a conversation this correspondent was having with a group young men comprising of Yadavs and Gangwars (essentially Kurmis or OBC community) which is in a sizeable number here.
While others in the group seemed to have made up their mind about Modi, Suresh Gangwar frankly pointed out that though their elders are rooting for ‘Netaji’ (as SP Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is known), he and his friends are keen to ‘try out’ Modi.
When asked as to what they knew about the Gujarat Chief Minister, they all quipped that it was simply the curiosity factor and they were impressed by his rally in Bareilly on April 1. “He spoke well and we want to see what he has to offer. He should be given a chance as change is needed,” said another youth Mahesh Yadav.
Observers claim that despite the Congress fielding Kazim Ali Khan (also known as Naved Miyan locally), there is not much to talk about him. “He has been a party hopper. After being in the BSP, he joined the Congress in 2012. Moreover the royal family’s hold is on the wane here,” said Rafe Adil Khan, a local political analyst. In such a scenario, the contest here is virtually a two-way fight between the BJP and the SP.
Nepal Singh, who has been an Member of legislative Council (MlC) several times, is a BJP candidate. Khan pointed out that though Singh is an unpopular leader, people could vote for the party instead of looking at him.
Similarly SP’s candidate Naseer Ahmad Khan, who has been handpicked by the party strong man and Rampur’s unofficial Nawab, Azam Khan, could get votes owing to his mentor’s clout.
Observers said that with the absence of Jaya Prada from the picture (against whom Azam Khan had run a vicious campaign in the 2009 lok Sabha polls), the Muslim votes, which is of a sizeable number totaling eigh lakh out of the total electorate of 15 lakh in the constituency, could go in SP’s favour. The seat itself is quite small having five Assembly constituencies out of which the Congress and the SP hold two each while the BSP has one. “Jaya Prada’s votes could completely go to Naseer Ahmad Khan,” said Rafe Adil.
Also Azam Khan’s unquestionable clout can be easily be seen among the local Muslim population. “Azam Khan only pointed out the fact (referring to his Kargil War remark), but it was distorted by the media. He has stood for us all the time and we will vote for SP,” said Mohammad Aslam, a keen watcher of the local politics, who incidentally runs a footwear shop in Rampur.
“The support for SP seems to be strong here as Muslims are of the view that all efforts should be made to stop BJP from reaching the 40 seats target in Uttar Pradesh. Also the community may indulge in strategic voting and the evening voting trends may decide the fate of candidates here,” pointed out Rafe Adil Khan. He made an interesting point that even if SP wins from Rampur, or whether the BSP is successful from other seats, ultimately they all will tie up with the Congress at the national level, so it would not be easy for the BJP in Rampur and in the whole of Uttar Pradesh.