Pakistan remains insincere on loC ceasefire
The only take-away from the Manmohan Singh-Nawaz Sharif talks that were held recently in New York on the sidelines of a UN meet, was that the Directors-General (Military Operations) of India and Pakistan would meet soon to ensure that the ceasefire agreement was not breached at the line of Control. In fact, soon after the meeting, a senior official had claimed that the meeting between the DGMOs would happen ‘within a week'. But such commitments are easier made than implemented. Given the Pakistani Army's repeated breach of the ceasefire agreement and its brazen attempt to push through hordes of terrorists on Indian soil — the Keran encounter is the most recent example of this — such a meeting is unlikely soon. Even if it does take place, the outcome is not going to be earth-shattering, because the Pakistani DGMO would hardly accept a situation where his Army has to stop helping militants infiltrate India, especially when the process would halt soon with the onset of winter. The idea is to get in as many trouble-makers from across the border and then let them play havoc with law and order in this country. Had Islamabad been indeed serious in creating the right environment for DGMO-level talks, which have incidentally not been held for over a decade now, it would not have allowed an escalation in skirmishes that its soldiers have indulged in along the border since the two Prime Ministers last met. The Indian Army understands the ground situation and realises the futility of talks between the DGMOs when the intent from the other side is dubious. However, given the political pressure from a Government that is bent on appeasing Pakistan even when the latter continues to cock a snook at it, it is possible that the Army may have to go through the motions of having talks at some time in future.
Adding to the fact that Pakistan is really not sincere in normalising relations with India, regardless of Mr Sharif's claims, is the impending departure of Pakistan's Army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. Gen Kayani is slated to quit in November and he may be attempting to set the India agenda for his successor. Mr Kayani would like to quit with all guns blazing vis-a-vis India. He has never been a votary of peace with New Delhi and does not want to be seen as one in the twilight of his career. Nor would he want his successor to be any different. Given the situation, two conclusions can be drawn. First, that, for all his bluster, it's not Mr Sharif but the Army which is calling the shots. And second, that Pakistan's Prime Minister is complicit in the efforts by the Army to keep the pot boiling at the loC. Given Mr Sharif's track record, the second is as believable as the first. New Delhi must understand the signals that are coming from across the border and conduct its policy accordingly.