Power Play, India's Way

Success of India thus would mean transforming diplomatic flexibility into economic firmness, technological capability, and greater influence in the global affairs, reshaping decisions made

The global order is evolving radically. Rivalry between the USA and China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, competition in advanced technologies, supply-chain disruptions, and clashes over energy resources and valuable minerals are reshaping the world’s existing power system. While current blocs still operate alongside newly formed alliances, developing economies are claiming their share in international institutions. The concept of economic interdependence can serve the purpose of prosperity. However, with regard to India, chances that have opened up for investment, diversification of trade, access to advanced technology and strengthening its geopolitical influence should also be considered.

At the same time, one should look at the issues of protectionism, instability in different regions of the world and conflicting interests of dominant powers. The main problem is to nominally be part of international cooperation without avoiding strategic dependence on any particular country or bloc. Success for India would thus mean transforming diplomatic flexibility into economic firmness, technological capability, and greater influence in the global affairs reshaping decisions made.

India’s strategic strategies take into account five fundamental factors: national security, economic development, energy needs, technological advancement, and international status. The unresolved border conflict with China, as well as safety issues in the Indo-Pacific, enforce close cooperation with the USA and other partners. However, the long-standing military connections as well as dependence on energy imports make Russia’s friendship of particular importance. Europe is ready to offer money, technology, and well-diversified trade, while developing countries create conditions for more intensive diplomatic cooperation. Domestic priorities are just as important. The problems of creating jobs, expanding production, developing infrastructure, and achieving technological independence can only be solved with the assistance of foreign investment and international markets. According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s GDP growth is 6.5 per cent in the financial year 2024-2025. Overall, economic growth alone cannot guarantee any independence.

India’s merchandise exports during 2024-2025 were around $441.8 billion, and imports were $729 billion in the same period, according to IMF estimates. The trade gap indicates the need to enhance manufacturing, raise productivity levels, and engage Indian enterprises with the global value chain. There are possibilities in semiconductors, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, digital services, production of defence items, and processing of critical minerals. However, technological dependence, lack of investment in R&D, and trade barriers could be severe issues.

The role of the USA in India’s defence, technology, trade and Indo-Pacific strategy is significant. Based on the statistics from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), trade between the two countries in goods and services reached around US$239.6 billion in 2025. US exports to India amounted to US$45.4 billion, and imports were about US$103.8 billion. This basically indicates a high level of economic interdependence and trade disparities. The two states aimed for a US$500 billion trade target by 2030, according to a March 2025 joint statement. The TRUST initiative cooperation brings opportunities in AI, semiconductors, critical minerals, biotechnology, space and modern defence technologies. However, trade disputes, issues with market access, as well as differences over Russia, remain existing challenges.

India still regards Russia as a key partner in army, energy and diplomatic calculations. The total amount of goods exchanged between the countries was US$68.7 billion in FY2024-2025, which included Indian exports of US$4.9 billion and imports valued at US$63.8 billion. Oil accounted for around 80 per cent of the trade volume, which demonstrates the energy benefits of cooperation as well as the risks of contaminated dependence. As reported by the Indian Council of World Affairs, the share of Russian oil in India’s total imports rose from 21.6 per cent in FY2022-2023 to 35.8 per cent in FY2024-2025. Thanks to diversified sourcing, India achieved energy independence but, at the same time, found itself exposed to price volatility, conflicts caused by sanctions and geopolitical tensions.

China offers a more complicated amalgamation of economic interdependence along with security conflicts. In 2024-2025, bilateral trade in goods stood at about $127.7 billion; however, Indian exports stood at just $14.25 billion, while imports were $113.45 billion, resulting in an approximate trade deficit of around $99.2 billion. This level of dependence reinforces the necessity of domestic industry but does not, in general, imply a need for total economic disengagement.

Europe represents a unique strategic possibility. The European Commission states that trade in goods between India and the EU reached €120 billion in 2024, while trade in services was €59.7 billion in 2023. According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, the stock of European investments accumulated in India surpassed €117 billion in 2024. The end of free-trade negotiations between India and the EU on 27 January 2026 is expected to boost market penetration and investment.

India’s aspirations in foreign affairs go beyond the pursuit of relationships with the major global powers. The Voice of Global South Summit, which took place in 2023, gathered 125 countries to discuss such issues as development finance, food safety, climate change, and access to technologies.

By presiding over the G20, India has significantly enhanced its diplomatic profile. However, effective leadership entails attaining tangible results in terms of the delivery of development assistance, provision of cost-effective technologies, and potent representation of developing countries. India’s multi-alignment strategy is flexible in nature, but its effectiveness depends on proper implementation. In order to succeed, New Delhi should enhance its technological capacities, diversify its economic partnerships, boost its exports, and engage in consistent, interest-driven diplomacy. Strategic autonomy does not imply the same mutual distance from every power but rather the ability to make independent choices. India can turn its multi-alignment policy into an instrument of achieving geopolitical and economic interests by means of combining economic resilience with selective cooperation and effective support of the Global South.

Centre for West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia; Views presented are personal.