Maybe, like Obama, Trump has simply decided that he doesn't want the inevitable collapse of the Western-backed regime in Afghanistan to happen on his watch. He's just committing enough American troops to the country to kick it down the road a bit
In 2010, former US President Barack Obama’s Vice President, Joe Biden, vowed that the US would be “totally out” of Afghanistan “come hell or high water, by 2014.” In 2014, Obama said that he would leave about 8,000 US troops there after all, and made an agreement with the new Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, that extended their stay “until the end of 2024 and beyond.”
US President Donald Trump wasn’t having any of that. Back in 2013, he tweeted, “Our troops are being killed by the Afghanis we train and we waste billions there. Nonsense! Rebuild the US.” But it looks like the generals have now got to him with what passes for military wisdom.
Trump announced that he would be sending more US troops to Afghanistan — probably around 4,000 — and that they would stay as long as necessary. He has a clever new strategy, too: “We are not nation building again. We are killing terrorists.” (I bet George W Bush and Obama wish they had thought of that).
There is a strong temptation at this point to haul out the hoary old line: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Trump is, indeed, proposing to do the same old things again, ostensibly in the hope of achieving different results. Peak US troop strength in Afghanistan was 100,000 in 2010-11. If that did not deliver victory then, how likely is it that boosting US troop numbers from 8,500 to 12,500 will do it nowIJ Neither the Soviet Union nor the British empire, at the height of its power, were able to overcome Afghan resistance to a foreign military presence, and we now have 16 years of evidence that the US cannot do it either.
Both the British and the Russians were able to maintain a military presence in the country as long as they were willing to take the casualties that involved, but in neither case did the regimes they installed, long survive their departure. Whatever their merits, those regimes were fatally tainted by their foreign sponsorship.
The US now finds itself in precisely the same situation. Ashraf Ghani’s Government is certainly not the worst that Afghanistan has had to endure, but it lacks legitimacy in the eyes of Afghan nationalists because it depends on foreign troops and foreign money.
Since those foreign troops dwindled from 140,000 in 2011 (including non-American troops from a dozen other Western countries) to only 13,400 now, the Afghan Government has lost control of about 40 per cent of the country. And the process is accelerating: One-third of that territory was lost in just the past year.
So what would happen if the foreign troops all left and the Taliban became the Government again, as they were in 1996-2001IJ Would the country become a breeding ground for terrorismIJ Would more plots like the 9/11 attacks be hatched thereIJ Probably not.
The Taliban are essentially a nationalist group. Their extremely conservative take on Islam was not seen as a problem by Washington when they were fighting the Russians, and most rural Afghan males do not see it as a problem now. (Nobody asks the women).
Most urban, educated Afghans are terrified of the Taliban’s return, of course, but they are a small fraction of the population. And many foreigners see the Taliban as the least bad alternative to the US-backed regime. As Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special envoy to Afghanistan, said in early 2016: “Taliban interests objectively coincide with ours.”
What he meant was that the Taliban aren’t interested in foreign affairs. They do not dream of a world Islamic empire; they just want to run Afghanistan. Indeed, they are the main military rivals to the jihadis of the Islamic State and Al Qaeda who are currently trying to establish a foothold in the country — by and large they are winning little private wars.
But what about 9/11IJ There is good reason to suspect that Osama bin laden and his mostly Arab companions of Al Qaeda, then guests of the Taliban, did not warn their hosts before they carried out that atrocity, since it would clearly lead to a US invasion and the overthrow of the Taliban regime.
Obviously, few of these considerations will have occurred to Trump, but does that mean he really thinks he can win in AfghanistanIJ Not necessarily.
Maybe, like Obama, Trump has simply decided that he doesn’t want the inevitable collapse of the Western-backed regime in Afghanistan to happen on his watch. He’s just committing enough American troops to the country to kick it down the road a bit.
(The writer is a Jammu-based journalist)