At a time when Pakistan judiciary is alleged to be at a low ebb, the Pakistan Army is pulling out all the stops to install a Government of its choice so that it can use terrorism as state policy to bleed its neighbours
As Taliban and ISIS are peddling competitive violent narratives in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region for supremacy and the Pakistan’s omnipotent Army is trying to install a Government of its choice in the July 25 general elections in Pakistan, the after-effects is set to be frightening not only for the Af-Pak region but also for India.
The most favourite party of the Pakistan Army is Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf. Although the outreach of the Pakistan Muslim league-Nawaj (PMl-N) is much larger, the Pakistan Army and jehadis seem to be hell bent on rigging the general election. Seen in this perspective, Nawaz Sharif and his political heir, daughter Marriam, have already been barred from fighting elections following the Pakistan Supreme Court awarding 10 years and 7 years imprisonment to father and daughter respectively in a graft case.
As the political field is cleared, jehadi elements are trying to become lawmakers in Pakistan. Mumbai terror attacks mastermind Hafiz Saeed too has joined the electoral fray. Saeed’s son and son-in-law are contesting elections under the banner of Allah-o-Akbar Tehrik. And as campaigning peaks, there are hush protest against election rules being blatantly flouted to create favourable results. The allegations include dictating, gagging or threatening media houses for independent and free reports and opinions. The judiciary is toeing the line of the Pakistan Army.
The results of the likely rigged elections will not only hurt the democratic aspirations of the people of Pakistan, it will have negative impact on India and Afghanistan also because Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is trying to give a new twist to Pakistan foreign policy by getting closer to China in order to minimise the American influence. The most likely repercussion may be attempts by Pakistani agencies to orchestrate terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan. Since China is providing all kinds of support to Pakistan, the American pressure is unlikely to work.
The recent suicide blast by ISIS in Afghanistan’s Jalalabad — which was home to over 2,50,000 Sikhs and Hindus before 1990s but now has only 300 such families — that killed at least 19 people, most of them members of the country’s Sikh minority, raises three fundamental questions.
First, whether Afghanistan is turning into the third home for ISIS after Syria and IraqIJ Second, what is the categorical difference between Taliban and ISISIJ Third, what are the options for India in the complex scenarioIJ
According to US reports, more than 700 hundred ISIS fighters are present in Afghanistan. The Russian sources claim the number may be around 10,000. ISIS has been gaining ground in Afghanistan since 2014 when the US announced to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. A large number of disenchanted Talibans have shifted loyalty to ISIS and their main targets are civilians, mostly non-Muslims. One of the popular videos of ISIS in Afghanistan proclaims, “O, you Muslims in every corner of the world immigrate to Khorasan; if you are incapable of immigrating to Iraq and Syria, come to Khorasan.” The name of Khorasan refers to a historic region which includes parts of modern day Afghanistan, Pakistan and neighbouring countries.
ISIS and Taliban both have backing of the Pakistan Army, albeit for different reasons. Media reports claimed the Jalalabad bombing was perpetrated by Taliban under the patronage of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). The aim is to terrify non-Muslims to leave Afghanistan and Pakistan or convert to Islam. A month ago, a prominent Sikh religious leader Charanjit Singh Sagar was shot in Peshawar in Pakistan.
Moreover, the ISIS faction operating from Afghanistan is independent. They swear by Baghdadi, but are not controlled by ISIS from Syria or Iraq. As most of them are former Talibans, they are familiar with the difficult terrain of Afghanistan. Therefore, the US forces fail to navigate their movement. The group is also aided by Pakistan Taliban.
The rise of ISIS in the region is a bad omen. As India is a major country reshaping the economic and military structure of Afghanistan, ISIS may consider India as an external hurdle to its dream of having free reign in Afghanistan. More than 150 Indian engineers and technical experts are working in major infrastructural projects in Afghanistan. In 2017, India and Afghanistan inaugurated two air corridors to boost connectivity and it has resulted in significance increase in trade volumes. As a part of the next generation “New Development Partnership”, India is implementing 116 new high impact development projects in 31 provinces of Afghanistan and is imparting training to Afghan security personnel. India is also a major trading partner of Afghanistan.
To counter India’s initiatives, Pakistan is doing everything to upset the apple cart. Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally that borders Afghanistan and has been a key route for US supplies into the country. Islamabad fears an Indian- dominated Afghanistan would leave it vulnerable. Therefore, Islamabad seeks a weak Kabul Government dominated by a pliant, supportive Taliban.
However, India under the leadership of Modi is creating a new wave in world politics. The Chinese attempts are to reduce Indian influence in its surrounding areas. Attempts are being made by China to lure Nepal away from India. China has pumped huge amounts of cash in Pakistan’s forthcoming elections. Beijing is trying to create an Asian Order where the space for India is synchronised. The other powers like the US and Russia are divided on many issues concerning India. This is a defining moment for Indian foreign policy.
(The writer is Head of the Department of Political Science, Central University of Haryana)