The fall of Assad’s regime signals a new chapter in Syria’s tumultuous history, raising critical questions about the country’s path to stability

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has been fighting rebel groups with the support of Russia, Iran, Lebanese and Hezbollah right from 2011. Within ten days of rebels getting control over northwestern city of Aleppo and further capturing Hama and Homs, the capital Damascus also fell under their control on  December 8. President Assad along with his wife and three children fled the country before rebel forces could reach him. He has been granted asylum in Moscow. His younger brother was tipped to succeed his father as President, died in a road accident.

He was called back from London, where he was practising ophthalmologist, to succeed his father as President of Syria. In the initial months after taking over the Presidency in the year 2000 he was seen as a reformist and pro-people in sharp contrast to his father Hafez al-Assad’s three-decade rule with iron hands. Once pro-democracy protests erupted in 2011, he followed the brutal tactics of his father to crush dissent. The conflict escalated into civil war and he was seen unleashing his military to blast opposition-held territories. All supporters of the Assad regime have considerably weakened their backing on account of the ongoing war they are engaged in.

Russian forces have a challenging battle in Ukraine. Owing to the high level of causalities of soldiers in the battle, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Syria partially and is even further recruiting foreign nationals in the force to keep the war going, which has already been continuing for a quarter to three years. Hamas’s terror attack on Israel on October  7, 2023 and Israel’s response to Gaza opened several dimensions of the West Asia conflict.

Iran’s supported terror groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen have denounced Palestinians suffering in Gaza on account of Israeli bombardment and it opened additional fronts for Israel in the conflict. This has also weakened Iran and Hezbollah to provide adequate support to Assad’s regime. In addition, 13 years of Syrian civil war has exhausted the Syrian Army. Owing to the corruption in the bureaucratic and political circle of the Syrian government, and the series of Western sanctions, the economy has been hardly afloat. Further President Erdogan in Ankara, is facing the heat on account of three million Syrian migrants living in Turkiye and more so because Syria dismisses his proposal for deportation of migrants alleging that his country has illegally occupied Syrian areas along the border.

There was an option for Assad to join the Arab League last year, but he did not accept making Arab nations also opposed to him. Earlier with the help of Iran and Russia, he had survived the Arab Spring Rebellion against him, which originated in Tunisia in 2011. The next question is about the future of Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Sunni Islamist militant group, that played an important role in the Syrian civil war. It is this group that has led other rebel groups to occupy Damascus.

The US, UK and UN have designated it as a terrorist organisation. A bounty of $10 million was on its chief Abu Mohammad al-Golani’s head.  UK has indicated lifting the ban on HTS if it delivers on promises like protecting minorities and people’s rights. Turkiye has backed some other rebel groups in the Syrian civil war, which do not have good ties with HTS. US-backed Kurdish YPG militia has established control in Syria’s northeast, also known as the Kurdish democratic union party (PYD) does not enjoy good and workable relations with HTS. There are separate rebels in Syria’s southwest.

 It is quite difficult for all the groups to come together and be partners in Syria’s new regime. 900 strong military men are maintained by the US in northeastern Syria. The US has maintained this presence in the name of countering ISIS, but its actual goal was the regime change in Syria.  The US has now emerged clear winner. As rebels have asserted control over Syria and its capital Damascus, uncertainties remain about the future of the country.  The first day was marked by arsenals, looting of shops and banks, and emptying prisons followed by a night curfew, but the second day saw normalcy slowly returning to the capital and other cities. The main rebel commander al-Golani met Assad’s PM Mohammad Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad to install a transitional government in Syria. Further, Golani has announced publicly that they would bring out a list of government officials responsible for torturing the citizens.

In the meantime, there have been air strikes in Syria by Israeli, US and Turkey forces to protect each of their interests. Iran and Russia have suffered major setbacks with the fall of Assad’s government.

Both countries have lost their key allies. As Sunni Islamic groups are going to be in control of Syria, Iran a predominantly Shia population is more vulnerable to Israeli attacks. When rebel forces took control of Aleppo about a week earlier, both Iran and Russia could not extend adequate defence leading to the fall of even Damascus. Iran was exposed in recent Israeli direct attacks, and Hezbollah was also decimated, no significant support came from Assad. In recent months, Assad’s Syria and Iran could not support each other when exigencies arose. Syria is the only state that had joined Iran’s ‘Axis of resistance’ against the US and Israel.

The axis has become weak; even Hezbollah’s downfall could not be prevented. Hezbollah has signed a ceasefire deal with Israel ahead of any Gaza deal.  The action of the state of Iran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to defend Assad did not go well with the people of Iran. It had political and economic costs. The fall of Assad sends a disturbing signal to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who now understands that the axis of resistance can no longer protect the allies.  Assad’s fall has also emboldened opposition groups in Iran. Besides these, women are protesting for their rights.

All these may lead to regime change in Iran too. If the Supreme Leader realigns himself with the US by reviving/ softening its stand on the 2015 nuclear deal, then regime change in Iran can be avoided. The last two weeks of violence that culminated in Assad’s fleeing Syria, also saw the Shia population enthusiastically taking measures to secure the tomb of Sayyeda Zainab, the daughter of Hazrat Ali and Fatima and granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad. This holy site signifies great importance for Shia Muslims worldwide. To guarantee the security of this precious shrine, Shias from Iran, Iraq and Pakistan are also moving to Syria. The shrine is located in al-Sitt, south Damascus.

Since 1979 Iranian government has provided financial support for the management of the shrine. Several Shia scholars and celebrities are buried in the shrine and surrounding cemeteries. Since 2012 the town has been under attack from armed militants in neighboring Sunni towns. Many Shia families were driven out of their homes in southern Damascus.

Rockets landing on random places was quite common. Sunni Muslims comprise 74 per cent of Syria’s population, whereas Shias are only 3per cent. Shias hold quite a strong sentiment for the shrine; the issue can be a potential flash point between the two sects and would also determine the rivalry between rebel groups. 

Will Syria’s transition to democracy be smooth? It is possible only when different rebel groups learn to share power.

(The writer is Principal Chief Conservator of Forests-Head of Forest Force- Karnataka; views are personal)