The recent West Bengal election results not only defeated the exit-poll agencies but also identified the failures of the BJP in mapping the minds of the State's voters. Election is the foundation of democracy. Most democratic countries of the world have adopted universal suffrage principle. The adult population of different class, religion, race, region, caste and other social groups of a nation participate in the election. How do they form their opinion on various political parties and vote for a particular party in an election?
The population who participate in the elections are not children- group but are the adults with decision making abilities. They interact with the Government and other socio-economic systems every day when they buy groceries or pay their medical bill or taxes.
They keep this information and experience with them to decide their voting for or against the ruling party. They also collect information about the activities of the opposition political parties.
The functioning of the Government in the election year is therefore very important as it shapes the opinion of the citizens. Before the election, the political parties make aggressive campaigns to influence the electors. They use mass media and social media. The political parties study the mind of the voters, identify their voting target groups and accordingly design their election manifestos. If the ruling party has studied the mind of the people correctly, it re-wins the election or otherwise it loses the battle to the opposition.
During 2016 Presidential election in America, the Republican Party and its Presidential candidate Donald Trump became the winner surprisingly. This was because the Republican Party adopted an aggressive right- wing campaign which it never had in the past. Donald Trump targeted the voters who believed in national pride, Christianity and strict immigration rule. These people thought that the migrants were eating away their jobs. They imagined that President Trump could bring them a new American Society where they will get jobs and welfare schemes. It is very easy to call this voting pattern as right- wing voting and blame the voters but it is worth to understand the voting behavior. Certain sections of the Americans did not get employment and welfare scheme during Obama administration.
They were looking for a change. The Republicans targeted these dissatisfied pro-Democrat electors along with their own party supporters. It clicked and Trump won the poll . In 2020 United States Presidential election , the Republican Party could not study the mind of the voters correctly.
The country was suffering from Covid-19 pandemic which the Trump administration could not handle. Besides, there was no significant development in the economy. Therefore, social polarization did not work. President Trump thought he would win the election although the situation was not in his favour.
On the other hand, the Democrats had put the Presidential candidate from the white population and the Vice Presidential candidate from the immigrant Indian population. Through such arrangement, the Democrats offered emotional inclusiveness to both the native white and the immigrant population. Besides, they promised better Covid-19 care.
This has led to the victory of the Democrats. Interestingly, the Democrats did not have to talk about jobs and economic depression which was the core of discontentment of the citizens but won on emotional planks like racism and mask. In 2014 general election in India, the BJP and its Prime Minister candidate Narendra Modi won by defeating the UPA Government which was in Union Government since 2004. Some political theoreticians called it as the win of right -wing Hindu ideology. But this is not fully true.
A percentage of vote of BJP might have come from its traditional electors like its party men, the conservative Hindus, the RSS supporters and so on but without the support of the pro-Congress and other party voters the BJP could not have won such a huge number of seats. Who were these new voters of the BJP? They were the middle class of India.
They were anti-UPA as the UPA Government could not do anything for them. Besides, the UPA did nothing to improve its corrupt-image shattered by the anti- corruption movement of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev, the observation of the CAG and the arrest of Ministers and MPs in spectrum case. The UPA could not give an appropriate Prime Minister candidate against Narendra Modi. So it was not Hindu voting but the promise of 'acche din' or good-day by the BJP and Modi which impressed the middle class.
In 2019 general election, BJP won again the Parliament election as there was no strong opposition. The ruling BJP used mass media and social media aggressively to keep a pro-Government environment to influence the electors. While the BJP could study the voters mind well, the opposition could not.
When one looks at the State level Assembly elections, one finds that the people of certain States are choosing their State level political parties for the State Government. This has happened during the last West Bengal Assembly election.
The BJP could not read the minds of the State voters properly and therefore could not succeed in poll. In the State of Odisha, Naveen Patnaik, the president of the State ruling BJD, has remained in power since 2000. The BJP and the Congress consecutively fail to read the public mind of Odisha. To win an election, a political party has to get the support of half of the electors. It has to identify its supporters and create a set of emotional, social, political activities and agendas to attract them.
It might also attract some religious, caste or racial groups those who feel neglected and follow an ideology to justify its action. When in Government, the ruling party has to run welfare schemes like Covid-19 vaccine for all and when in opposition it must promise an agenda for voters.
On the other hand, the electors are not constant in their loyalty to the political parties. Therefore right assessment of the mind of the electors is very important and is the first step to succeed in any election like the BJD and the TMC.
(The writer is a freelance journalist. Phone: 9439178588)
