Today, the popular demand in Sudan is that the military should transfer power back to the democratic government. At this moment, America’s solidarity with the street protesters is a positive development. But the global governance institutions should do more than just issuing statements. Else, General Burhan may turn out to be another Bashir
The military in Sudan has orchestrated a quiet coup. It took control of the country from the transitional Government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and arrested him on the early hours of October 25, dissolving the Cabinet by announcing a state of emergency.
Meanwhile, the military-civilian Sovereignty Council, a temporary government, has become dysfunctional. Frankly speaking, the coup is the latest to have struck the poverty-stricken country that has experienced only rare democratic interludes since its Independence in 1956.
Sudan is no stranger to such military coups. Its former military ruler Omar Hassan al-Bashir led a quiet coup in 1989 and ruled the country since then till 2019 for almost three decades when he was ousted by a similar coup.
After the exit of Bashir and his party called National Congress Party (NCP) in 2019, since then Sudan has been ruled by the Sovereignty Council until the very recent coup orchestrated by current Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
The transitional government had been sluggish in enacting reforms and showed little concern about basic rights and freedoms. The security agents and cronies of the Bashir era have always remained influential in the last two years. Violence involving the armed forces, gangs and rival ethnic groups persist in many parts of the country. In 2020, the country suffered serious chaos and emerged from the Covid-19. By October last year, the Transitional Government headed by the Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) signed the historic Juba Peace Agreement with an alliance of rival groups. The deal included provisions for the integration of rebel fighters into the security forces, power sharing allocations and commitments to address economic marginalisation.
It also postponed national elections till 2024. It could be a great opportunity for the current military dispensation to deepen its influence and rule even beyond 2024.
What surprised the international community was that in February 2020, the TSC made it clear that former President Bashir should face charges of genocide and war crimes. Afterwards, in July that year the transitional government replaced several military governors with civilian employees. Further, it replaced many repressive laws that had particularly affected the rights of women and members of religious minority groups.
Citizens across Sudan have continued their protests over a range of issues, including slow pace of reforms, and brutality of the security forces particularly the use of live ammunitions in many areas. But it has to be noted that the rate of violence had been much lower than it used to be in the immediate aftermath of the removal of dictator Bashir in 2019.
And the year 2021 has not been peaceful and the civilian groups have continued their struggle so as to revive the demand for a democratic government in the country.
Ironically, Burhan - who was the head of the Sovereignty Council - is justifying the military takeover of Sudan.
To him, the country in Northeast Africa - the third largest country in the African continent only after Algeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the sixteenth largest nation in the world - was headed for a civil war and hence the army intervention was needed to save it
from falling into chaos and destruction.
Sudan’s just deposed fledgling civilian military government was the last hope both for Africa and the Arab world since the ouster of Bashir. Indeed, last month saw an unsuccessful coup attempt by the supporters of Bashir. Even the first sign of the coup came to public when Prime Minister Hamdok suddenly disappeared. The military first asked him to endorse the coup and when he refused, he was taken to an undisclosed destination.
The coup came just weeks before the military was supposed to hand over power to the civilian government. According to the original agreement signed with the Forces of Freedom and Change in August 2019, Burhan was named the TSC’s chair for a 21-month period, after which a civilian head would lead the Council for 18-months.
Interestingly, when the time of civilian takeover came, the military swung into action. The saddest part of the deal is that the army has always had an edge over the civilian functionaries of the TSC. And finally, the army has taken over by citing the security reasons and impending civil war in the country. Washington tried to avert the chaos in Khartoum by sending a special envoy Jeffrey Feltman.
Today, the popular demand is that the military should transfer power back to the democratic government. Meanwhile, Sudan’s main opposition coalition, the Forces of Freedom and
Change pressed for civil disobedience and protests across the country.
The current military coup has invited criticism from different quarters of the world. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for immediate release of Hamdok and other officials deposed by the army. He said, “I condemn the military coup in Sudan. Prime Minister Hamdok and all other officials must be released immediately. There must be full respect for the constitutional charter to protect the hard-won political transition. The UN will continue to stand with the people of Sudan.”
It shows his concern but there is hardly any possibility that the military will listen to his appeal. Again the US State Department spokesperson
Ned Price urged the Sudanese army to restore the civilian government.
But the worst what the people of Sudan will face in a pandemic hit economy is the cancellation of USD 700 million meant for economic support to the country. In fact, this fund was made available to support the democratic transition of Sudan in the post-Bashir removal.
The UN Security Council (UNSC) has called on the military to restore the civilian government. After the UNSC statement, US President Biden said his nation stood with the demonstrators. He said, “Together, our message to military authorities is overwhelming and clear: the Sudanese people must be allowed to protest peacefully and the civilian-led transitional government must be restored.”
At this moment, America’s solidarity with the street protesters have made it clear that it would be really difficult for the military to continue its unabated rule for a longer period of time.
EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said in a statement that violence and bloodshed should be avoided at all costs in Sudan. The United Kingdom said the military coup in Sudan was an unacceptable betrayal of the Sudanese people and called on security forces there to release Hamdok. The Secretary General of the Arab League urged all parties to fully abide by the constitutional declaration signed in August 2019 that had aimed to pave the way for a transition to civilian rule and democratic elections.
The African Union has finally suspended Sudan’s membership from the elite body over what the organisation termed it as unconstitutional takeover.
Sudan’s future is bleak. Only constant in the country’s recent history is internecine violence. The common Sudanese feel that the grimmest days are ahead. The protesters in the capital city Khartoum are demanding the restoration of the civilian government of Hamdok though it was not very effective. But with him about to take over as the head of the TSC, people were expecting a permanent relief from the military rule that continued in the country since 1989.
The role of the civilian leaders in the TSC has long receded much before the coup. This is how the generals have maintained their long-held grip over administration in the country.
The bottom-line is that Sudan’s challenge to authoritarianism should continue. The global governance institutions should do more than just issuing statements. Else, General Burhan may turn out to be another Bashir.
(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)
