A study by academicians from two leading US universities has recommended shutting down of red-light areas for one year, to prevent an anticipated a shocking 400,000 infections and 12,000 deaths among red light area workers and residents in the event of resumption of activities.

The study titled ‘Modelling the Effect of Continued Closure of Red-Light Areas on Covid-19 Transmission in India’, carried out by experts at Harvard Medical School and the Yale School of Medicine, has projected that there could be over 400,000 infections and 12,000 deaths among red light area workers and residents in the next one year if they are reopened.

Among other things, the study says that more than 90 percent of these cases and deaths in cities like Kolkata, Pune, and Nagpur could be prevented by the time the epidemic would peak by keeping red light areas closed.  “It is impossible to practice social distancing during sex. Residents of red-light areas including sex workers, pimps, and brothel managers are at higher risk of infection. By keeping red light areas closed till there is an effective preventive measure, thousands of deaths among residents of red-light areas can be averted,” Dr. Abhishek Pandey, Yale University, co-author of the study, said.

According to the study, West Bengal’s red-light areas will experience over 2,000 deaths of sex workers and red light area residents if they reopen. West Bengal’s largest NGO working with sex workers, Durbar Mahila Samanwaya Committee (DMSC), has a membership that includes about 65,000 sex workers spread across 50 red light areas in the state.

Maharashtra will also be one of the worst affected states. In Pune’s Budhwar Peth, there may be 4,795 cumulative cases, 688 hospitalizations, and 162 deaths. In Mumbai’s Red-Light Area of Kamathipura, Grant Road, and Faulkland Road, 3,494 cases, 486 hospitalizations, and 114 deaths. In Nagpur, Itwari Chowk can face 1,667 cases, 236 hospitalizations, and 56 deaths.

In New Delhi, the GB Road Red Light Area could experience 2,774 cases, 386 hospitalizations, and 91 deaths.

Dr. Sahayakan, a member of Code Red Coalition, a global coalition of doctors and researchers that is advising governments on how to prevent COVID-19 spread said, “None of the protection measures like distancing, masks, or sanitising can effectively stop COVID-19 transmission during sex work. Sex work cannot be safely practised in red light areas in India given their nature. It can result in many cases and deaths in sex workers and citizens”.

Commenting on the report, co-author, Dr. Sudhakar Nuti, Harvard Medical School, said “The Indian government has implemented smart and effective measures to flatten the curve, but it is unlikely for the pandemic to be resolved until there is a vaccine. It is therefore important that red light areas remain closed until a vaccine is developed and widely distributed to protect sex workers and the population at large”.

The study has recommended that sex workers need opportunities to gain skills that provide employment in lower-risk jobs. Recent media reports show that some sex workers have begun exploring other employment options. In Andhra Pradesh, a collective has asked for an exit strategy for sex workers including “transitional housing, bank loans, and alternate employment”. The efforts to close India’s red-light areas and help sex workers find lower risk jobs would save many lives.

As part of the study, a scientific model was applied to multiple cities across India. If red light areas are kept closed then cumulative cases and deaths at the peak could be reduced by over 90% percent in these areas: Nashik, Jalgaon, Meerut, Silchar, Satara, Siliguri, Pune, Nagpur, Kolkata, and Durgapur. In Thane, New Delhi, Sonarpur, Guntur and Sangli there can be over 60% percent reduction in the cumulative cases and deaths at the peak.