After Moody’s Investors Service slashing India growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 0.2 per cent, from 2.5 per cent projected in March, the Centre on Wednesday projected the agriculture growth rate at least 3 per cent which is the long-term growth rate despite most of the economic activities are at standstill amid the nationwide lockdown due to coronavirus. Agriculture and allied sector''s growth stood at 3.7 per cent during the 2019-20 fiscal.
Addressing the media, Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said that agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was at 3.7 per cent during last year. “I am confident that this growth in future will not be impacted much," Tomar added.
Presenting a very positive outlook for the sector, the Minister said despite the lockdown in the country, the sowing of summer crops had increased to 57.07 lakh hectare, which is more than 38 per cent over the area sown last year.
“Even in such trying circumstances and conditions, sowing has not decreased. In other related activities, the sector is making good progress due to the good practices adopted by the government and hard work by farmers,” Tomar said.
Echoing the sentiments, agriculture expert and NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand on Wednesday said that even at a time when 60 per cent of India’s economy is closed, in the case of agriculture, things are happening. “Our estimate is that the sector will see a growth rate of 3 per cent despite all prevailing adverse circumstances. The share of agriculture sector in the economy is 17 per cent. I am sure that during these distressing times, agriculture will rise and give support to the economy,” he added.
The contribution of agriculture to the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) decreased from 18.2 per cent in 2014-15 to 16.5 per cent in 2019-20. The decline was mainly due to a decrease in share of GVA of crops from 11.2 per cent in 2014-15 to 10 per cent in 2017-18, according to the economic survey.
The share has been declining on account of relatively higher growth performance of non-agricultural sectors.
However, according to Chand, prices of major commodities and vegetables were higher in mandis this year than last year. “When prices are favourable and terms of trade are better, farmers invest more. As much as 60 per cent of India’s economy is closed, but in the case of agriculture, things are moving.
It will register a 0.5 per cent growth rate and the fear that the Indian economy will shrink will be negated,” said Chand.
According to Chand, good monsoon, 40-60 per cent higher water availability in the reservoirs, and 5 per cent higher offtake of fertiliser during the first four months of this year are the major signs indicating a bumper production this year.” On top of that, 20 per cent increase in the sale of seeds and high food prices, showing better terms of trade and more encouragement to the farmers to produce are also expected to give cues to an affluent crop season,” Chand added.
Earlier, the Minister said that there is a surplus foodgrain in the country and there is no shortage of vegetables during the lockdown.
According to Tomar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains committed to doubling the income of farmers by 2022. “The agriculture sector has remained unaffected due to the Covid-19 lockdown, but there have been other problems. As soon as the situation improves, we will start working towards the goal,” he said
Regarding the damage to the crops due to recent weather conditions, the minister said there were provisions available between the states and the Centre to tackle the issue. Recounting the measures taken by the Government to aid the sector, like the PM Kisan and increasing coverage of the KCC, he said the Modi government increased the MSP of various crops by 50 to 109.
