Why today's match is so crucial
Here is why the India England match is so super crucial for everyone fighting for a place in the semis:
Australia are already in the semi-final and South Africa, West Indies and Afghanistan out of the race. Six teams are fighting for the last three spots. With India almost sure of reaching last 4 with three games to play and just one point needed, two berths are up for grabs with five teams in contention.
NEW ZEALAND (7 games, 11 points)
The 2015 finalists need just one point to seal their semi-final spot. Even if they drop the last 2 games against Australia and England they can still advance provided India beat Bangladesh and then Bangladesh beat Pakistan. And if Pakistan, Bangladesh and England win their remaining matches then they just have to make sure they pip Pak and B'desh in Net run rate as in that case the three teams will have the same number of points (11).
PAKISTAN (8 games, 9 points)
For them to qualify in the semis, they need to beat Bangladesh in their final group game on July 5 and also hope that England and Bangladesh lose one of their matches. In that case, they will have 11 points while the remaining two can max reach 10 and 9 points respectively.
But if they lose against Bangladesh, then they have to make sure that their run rate is higher than their sub-continent rivals. Also they have to keep an eye on England results. They can only advance with 9 points if England drops both the games (against India and New Zealand) and Bangladesh lose against India and win by a small margin against them.
ENGLAND (7 games, 8 points)
For England to qualify, they have to win both games. They will get direct berth even if Pakistan or Bangladesh win their remaining games.
If they drop one of the two then they have to expect India to beat Bangladesh and then Bangladesh to beat Pakistan.
But if England drops both the games, they will be out of the tournament as Pakistan has a point more than them and that will seal them the last 4 spot.
BANGLADESH (7 games, 7 points)
Now after Pakistan's win over Afghanistan, the way to make it to the last 4 becomes a way too complex for the Tigers. For them to play in the semifinal, they have to win both the games and make sure their run rate is higher than Pakistan and also at the same time keep an eye on England's result as well. If England drops one game and B'desh wins both they will qualify for the semifinal. But this is not going to be an easy ride as they have to face India and Pakistan in the last two games.
If they suffer defeat against India then they have to pray that England lose both its game, Sri Lanka drops one game and they beat Pakistan by bigger margin so that they are above them when Net run rate (NRR) comes into count.
SRI LANKA (7 games, 6 points)
They have to win both the games against West Indies and India and also hope that England drops both their games, Bangladesh lose against India and then beat Paksitan at Lord's on Friday.