Get ready to face a harsh summer this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the average temperature in most parts of north India northeast regions, northwest India and southern parts of west coast to remain above normal during March, April, May this year.
The rest part of the country is expected to see normal temperature during summer.
The past four years, from 2015 to 2018, were the warmest ever recorded years. In fact, the 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 22 years. This trend also sits in perfectly with the emission rates of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which were at a record high in 2018 according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
According to IMD predictions, the season average maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Saurashtra, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius. Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal minimum temperatures.
It also said there is 37 per cent probability of the maximum temperatures in 2019 being above normal in the core heat wave zones of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telengana.
The IMD does not consider March as part of summer season — April to June is considered the actual summer.
IMD sources said the combined effect of climate change will lead to hotter summer this year.
“The heat wave is expected to hit 16 States due to various reasons. However, normal heat wave — like conditions will prevail over the country’s core heat wave zone. Central and northern India are generally considered the core heat wave zones,” officials said.
The regions falling under the core heat wave zone are Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana, and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, central Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
On El Nino, which is expected to impact the southwest monsoon, the IMD said at present near borderline El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and this is expected to persist during the March-May period and weaken thereafter.
A weak El Nino augurs well for the southwest monsoon season in India which immediately follows the summer months.
Skymet weather forecaster had forecast that rains have more than 50 per cent chance of being ‘normal.’
The forecast will be updated in April after more details pour in and the current prediction is based on weather patterns available till January end. The IMD is expected to release its first forecast sometime in April.
