The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a warm winter as minimum temperatures in most parts of the country are likely to be higher than normal. In its latest seasonal temperature outlook, issued for the period between December and February, the IMD said the overall average mean temperatures are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5 °C.
In central and peninsular India, minimum temperatures could be 1°C or more than normal.
The forecast comes in the backdrop of rising concerns over climate change, with global agencies indicating a rise in temperatures by 1 °C since pre-industrial levels and going by the current rate, temperature may rise 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052.
The prediction is for all parts of the country except the northern-most region. This will be fourth consecutive winter season in India which is expected to be warmer. February 2018 was the warmest in the last 118 years. The mean temperatures for January-February 2018 were 0.53°C higher than the normal of 22.17°C for this period.
"Except for the northern-most parts, the entire country could see a warmer winter this time, that's what our coupled dynamic forecasting models show," said M Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, New Delhi.
The current sub-divisional forecast is based on predictions from Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model developed under the Ministry of Earth Sciences' monsoon mission project.
The predictions are based on the initial November weather conditions.
The relative rise in temperatures would be most evident in the core cold-wave zone which covers most parts of north-west India, including Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Haryana. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana are also part of the cold-wave zone.
"Besides El Nino conditions, there are other factors as well that determine how cold or warm the winter season in India will be. These are local weather patterns. North India's cold weather is on account of the western disturbances, which are extra tropical winds originating in the Mediterranean region. However, this year, the western disturbances activities are bypassing the subcontinent," said officials of IMD.
Earlier this year, the IMD had predicted a hotter summer with mean average temperatures rising above normal by 0.5°C to 1°C, indicating a consistent warming trend seen across various parts of the world.
The latest Inter-Government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report indicated that impact of global warming has become evident sooner than expected and hit harder than forecast. The report said it would not be possible to limit the 1.5°C rise in temperatures by 2100, until there are rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in every aspect of society.
