Cities in east, N-E and south face the heat

Despite heavy rain which caused massive floods in Assam, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Gujarat, the possibility of a drought looms large over 253 districts across the country, mainly in the east, northeast and south.

The rain deficiency has touched to 9 per cent till September 29 as the country witnessed 800.4 mm rainfall as against the normal of 883.6 mm. Normally, if the cumulative rainfall deficiency crosses 10 per cent and above, then it is declared as a “drought year” for the entire country.

This even as the withdrawal of monsoon started from some parts of Rajasthan, Kutch and north Arabian Sea from Saturday (September 29), which is almost a month’s delay. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the official date of withdrawal is September 1. The delay in withdrawal of monsoon is good for rabi crops but will impact the winter season.

In nine States and Union Territories (UTs), including Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, 50 per cent or more districts experienced deficient to “large deficient” rainfall. As per the IMD, as many as 239 districts — of the 662 for which rainfall data were available — received deficient rainfall (-20 per cent to

-59 per cent) while 14 districts have received “large deficient” rainfall (-60 to -99 per cent). At least 19 districts have not shared any data with IMD on the current monsoon status.

According to the IMD, most of the districts so affected are in Gujarat (19), Bihar (27), Uttar Pradesh (27), Tamil Nadu (19), Jharkhand (17),  Karnataka (15), Maharashtra (13), West Bengal (10) and Assam (10). But some of these States also had seemingly contradictory weather conditions:

Tamil Nadu and Karnataka received normal rainfall, as did Andhra Pradesh, where six of 13 districts, about 46 per cent, recorded deficient rainfall. All three states also experienced widespread floods in August 2018--six districts in Tamil Nadu, seven in Karnataka and two in Andhra Pradesh.

IMD officials claimed that East and North eastern State have recorded rain deficiency up to 25 per cent while Central India recorded six percent till date.

North Western India has recorded only two per cent deficiency while South Peninsula only one per cent. Out of total 36 sub-divisions, as many as 25 have witnessed normal rains, while 9 continue to remain rain-deficient and two sub division has recorded excess rains.

The monthly deficit has increased from 5 per cent in June, to 6 per cent in July and 7.6 per cent in August. In September, the deficiency touched 18 per cent. According to agriculture ministry, if 20-40 per cent of the State receives deficient rainfall, it will be declared as ‘deficient year’. If it goes beyond 40 per cent, it will be declared a ‘largely deficient year’. A deficient monsoon year is when the cumulative rainfall across the country remains minus 10 per cent or above, once called an ‘All India Drought Year’.

According to officials,  about 45 per cent and 40 per cent districts of West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh received deficient to ‘large deficient’ rainfall but the cumulative rainfall over both the States remained normal.

These States are India’s largest and second-largest rice producers (respectively), accounting for 30 per cent of national rice production, depends on a good monsoon. ‘These unusual conditions are caused by large variations in the rainfall received at state and district levels,’ officials said.

Recent heavy rainfall which occurred due to low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, has ravaged in Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, some parts of Bihar, UP and Assam destroyed crops and properties worth crore of rupees.

Despite variation of monsoon rain across the country,  the Agriculture Ministry’s data released on Friday shows the drop in the kharif planting season ended on September 30. The kharif crop planting has covered 1,052.38 lakh hectare from June up to September 28, a 1.90 per cent drop from 1,072.79 lakh hectare a year earlier.

Southwest Monsoon 2018 has begun its journey of withdrawal from West Rajasthan, setting in pace for post-monsoon cyclone season in the country.

Sea surface temperatures (SST), both in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, have been on rise for last many days. According to Skymet Weather, whenever the sun is over the equator, the heat potential of the ocean rises phenomenally.

This eventually leads to increase in SSTs, which is highly conducive for formation of a cyclonic storm. Besides this, ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) has now also started shifting southwards towards the coast. This is the main generator behind the disturbances in the open waters.

As per weathermen, Indian seas are the deadliest basins for the formation of severe cyclonic storms during this time of the year.