The rise in the country’s temperature by 0.7 °C and erratic climatic patterns is set to impact the farmers hard and reduce productivity in agriculture sector. Summer planting of crops, including paddy and cotton, could be delayed due to heat wave conditions from April to June this year as predicted by the Met department.
According to the Agriculture Ministry, one-degree-Celsius increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soya bean, mustard, groundnut and potato by 3 to 7 per cent. Most farmers in the country are not covered by insurance and they do not receive relief for crop damage.
The economic loss to agriculture could be many times higher— last year’s Economic Survey noted that the country incurs losses of about $9-10 billion annually (Rs 62,000 crore) due to extreme weather events.
The Met Department has predicted that summer could be severe in 2018, with temperatures rising by 0.5 to 1°C than the long-term average. While northern and western parts of the country will see a spike in mean seasonal temperatures by more than 1°C, the southern States could see temperatures rise between 0.5 degrees Celsius and 1°C from their long-term averages.
Anticipating that heat wave conditions will prevail across northwest India, with temperature being 1 degrees above normal, it will impact cereal and horticulture crop,” said an official of Agriculture Ministry.
Farmers in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan typically start planting cotton by May and paddy by June. In MP, soya bean cultivation starts after the monsoon sets in. The high temperatures also renew fears of a drought and pose a challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to double farm income by 2022.
According to Skymet Weather, the country has recorded 12.8 mm of rain against the average of 19.8 mm between March 1 and March 21.
According to a report of Agriculture Ministry, higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will severely affect the production patterns of different crops. “Agricultural productivity will also be affected due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Various studies have also indicated overall reduction in productivity by 4 to 6 per cent in rice, 6 per cent in wheat, 18 per cent in maize, 2.5 per cent in sorghum, 2 per cent in mustard and 2.5 per cent in potato due to erratic climatic pattern.
“The high inter and intra-seasonal variability in rainfall distribution, extreme temperature and rainfall events are causing crop damages and huge losses to farmers due to climate change,” the Agriculture Ministry said in its assessment on erratic climatic pattern.
The Economic Survey report estimates that farmers’ income losses from climate change would be between 15 per cent and 18 per cent on an average. It would be higher between 20 per cent and 25 per cent in rainfed areas.
