The transition of power four times, highest level of violence in a decade, lowest economic activity and unending political uncertainty marks the most tumultuous year in the recent history of Jammu & Kashmir. As the year 2018 draws to close, the Parliament endorsed President’s Rule in the embattled State as no signs of situational improvement are in sight to pave way for the conduct of elections. The mainstream political parties are struggling to strike a chord with common people whose disaffection is visible on the ground.
Officials say that the year was the bloodiest in a decade. The security forces shot dead 251 militants in gun-battles and sudden raids on hideouts. Most of the times, people attempted to help militants escape from the encounter sites inviting direct action from the security forces. At least 60 civilians were killed around the encounter sites. Another 40 civilians were killed by suspected militants. Some brutal executions were recoded and footage was circulated on internet to create scare. The security forces faced the toughest challenge. At least 89 security personnel were killed in different incidents of violence including gun-battles and kidnapping. While 50 infiltrators were killed along the Line of Control, officials say that around a hundred infiltrators have successfully sneaked into the region to reinforce the insurgency. Despite an effective counterinsurgency campaign, around 160 militants were reported to be active at the eyear-end. They belonged to Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Al Badr, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Ansar Gazwatul Hind outfits.
The dominance of violence actually shattered the political castle during the year. When BJP pulled out of coalition with the PDP on June 19, Ram Madhav (then BJP’s pointman in Kashmir) referred to deteriorating security situation in the region under Mehbooba Mufti’s leadership. It was expected that after Mehbooba’s sacking the situation would improve in Governor’s rule. However, it was easier said than done.
The Central Government even tested removal of Governor when NN Vohra was replaced by Satya Pal Malik on August 22. With Malik in Raj Bhawan, the six months of Governor’s rule were completed paving way for the imposition of President’s Rule on December 19. Malik dissolved the State Assembly on November 22 when two Mehbooba Mufti and Sajad Lone staked claims for the formation of Government. Mehbooba was backed by National Conference and Congress parties and claimed the support of 56 legislators in the 87-member Hopuse. Lone claimed support of 25 BJP members and some unidentified dissenters from different parties.
Interestingly, during the year, by-poll for Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency could not be held. The NC and PDP were compelled to boycott the lacklustre municipal polls, imposed by the Governor administration, primarily due to the defiant ground. They took alibi of the pending bunch of litigations in Supreme Court challenging the special status of the state.
The major brunt of this State of affairs was borne by the PDP that failed to strike a balance between its ‘core ideology’ and compulsions to remain in power. Six months after she was sacked Mehbooba Mufti repents her party’s decision to cobble up a coalition with the BJP. Having led the coalition twice and acted as a potent opposition when out of power, the PDP’s imminent decline is the biggest saga of 2018. As the year draws to close, the PDP’s castle is full of chinks and crevices. A battery of top leaders including former Ministers Imraz Reza Ansari, Haseeb Drabu and Basharat Bukhari have parted ways along-with a battery of former legislators and known workers. Ansari and Bukhari joined the rival camps and grapevine is that many prominent leaders are mulling to jump off the ship at appropriate time.
The PDP has never encountered such an existential crisis since its inception in 1999. After it pulled out of an alliance with Congress in 2008, the party survived six years in opposition under Omar Abdullah’s regime. During this period no significant leader of the party left Muftis for available greener pastures. The party leadership could sustain the hope amongst the rank and file that it has the capacity to bounce back.
Mehbooba is now confronting massive challenges. She has no bankable advisors. Her amateur brother is untraceable and party insiders are continuously raising fingers on the role of her confidantes. At the end of year 2018, it is interesting to find Mehbooba in a tough struggle to keep her flock together. She does not talk about regaining power but tries to make people believe that she would not leave the ground quite easily. “Politics is all about expediency, permutations & combinations. Power is transient and is not something I have strived for. However, I stand firm in my commitment and resolve towards rebuilding a party I built brick by brick with my late father and its patron,” she said in a tweet after some of her trusted colleagues joined rival NC.
The PDP’s downslide has raised the confidence of NC leadership by several notches. Over the years, the NC gained many a positives, both on ideological level and while working as an effective opposition party. The NC is developing its new politics around the restoration and safeguard of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. The PDP’s misrule and disastrous failure of its alliance with BJP has offered it another chance to approach the people. In the upcoming elections for Parliament and State Assembly, the NC would plunge with an edge over its arch rival. The NC’s role would be more important in Jammu and Ladakh regions.
The emergence of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference and the anti-climax of his claim to become the Chief Minister hours before the dissolution of assembly, at least, introduced a new factor to the unionist politics in Kashmir. Sajad exhibited grit to shed ambiguity on his politics. He joined the pro-India politics and went into BJP’s lap much before the 2014 assembly elections. Sajad’s high point came after Mehbooba Mufti’s sacking. The ambitious BJP began thinking of forming a Government in J&K by engineering a split in PDP and NC. The BJP’s Ram Madhav did a lot of legwork to translate the hypothesis of forming a BJP Government into reality. But for the stringent anti-defection laws and non-availability of a horde of dissenters, the plan did not come to fruition.
The surprising political developments in Kashmir, however, dashed the aspirations of BJP to establish its base, to ground. Despite pampering a host of individuals through the luxuries of power, the BJP could not find acceptance in the Valley. At the end of the year, the BJP is in the list of untouchables, even for the people who at different stages, boasted their association with the party. The dread of BJP taking over the state has gone and anti-BJP rhetoric is gaining more currency.
While the violence continued unabated and mainstream political leaders struggled to settle down, the State continued to reel under economic distress. A Parliamentary panel conceded that the tourism sector remained under distress in Valley as the imposition of GST prevented tourist footfall. A sudden snowfall in November also hit the horticulture sector as thousands of fruit borne trees were damaged.
