Continued nuclear tests by North Korea have instilled a sense of fear in South Korea. That’s why Seoul succumbed to US suggestion of THAAD deployment, says RAJARAM PANDA

In response to the US decision to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery to be operated by the US Forces Bay (USKF) troops in South Korea on July 8 to counter threats from the North, North Korea soon responded by firing three ballistic missiles on July 18 that simulated pre-emptive strikes against South Korean ports and airfields used by the US military.

Pyongyang wanted to demonstrate by successfully testing the simulated detonation of nuclear warheads mounted on missiles with a range of 500 to 600 kilometres that the missile defence system deployed by the US in South Korea is no threat to it. Pyongyang was obviously irked and therefore responded with massive display of military might. 

South Korea noted that the missiles flew into the sea off its coast and were in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions and therefore a latest provocative act by the isolated country. North Korea’s claims are always suspect and it remains unclear if Pyongyang has indeed succeeded in developing a nuclear warhead for missiles. Even if the doubts remain, it is surely another example that North Korea is relentlessly pursuing nuclear warhead development and herein remain the risks.

The three missiles were launched from Hwangju, south of Pyongyang. One flew 500 km and another 600 km before crashing into the sea off the country’s east coast. The trajectory of the third missile remained unknown. The first two missiles were suspected to be Scud tactical ballistic missiles and a home-grown Nodong intermediate-range ballistic missile based on Soviet-era Scud technology.

While the Scuds cover the whole of South Korea within range, Nodong or Rodong missiles, with a range of over 1,300 km, can put most of Japan as well within range. South Korea’s capability to counter the missiles from the North remains limited as its Patriot missile defences stationed in South Korea have the ability to only counter the relatively low-tech Scuds.

It is believed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally supervised the missile launch, “provided field guidance” for the drill and was pleased over its success. But despite claims of success, doubts remain. It is true that Pyongyang has been striving to master technology to miniaturise a nuclear warhead to mount on its rockets, but its claims of success are tough to verify independently as North Korea remains one of the world’s most closed societies.

Nuclear technology experts outside of North Korea still doubt the claims that it is capable of mounting nuclear warheads on its rockets. If North Korea’s claims can be believed, then it is a matter of concern for the US and South Korea as US aircraft carriers and submarines often visit South Korea’s southern ports, including Busan, Ulsan, and Jinhae, for missions, where 28,500 odd US troops are stationed.

As a part of the security treaty signed between South Korea and the US at the end of the Korean War (1950-53), the US marines are based at the Korean ports to provide security to South Korea and therefore the US is concerned when their lives come under the North Korean threat. 

Though Pyongyang had threatened of “physical response” after the THAAD deployment announcement, its subsequent firing of ballistic missiles is barred by the UN Security Council resolutions and therefore condemnable. It is a different matter that once the deployment site, Seongju, about 180 km south of Seoul, was announced, it sparked strong opposition from the residents of the region as they feared health hazards, especially from exposure to radiation from the system’s powerful radar emissions.

The residents are concerned that exposure to the electromagnetic radiation from the system’s radar could cause serious harm to them and could also contaminate agricultural products. The South Korean Government faces domestic challenges to sort out the location issue as the plan is to deploy the system by the end of 2017.

The purpose of deploying the missile defense battery is to detect and destroy incoming North Korean missiles. Once the system becomes active, it should be able to defend two-thirds of South Korea if the North decides to attack. For the North, the firing of missiles was probably to remind its southern neighbour that Seongju as the chosen site for THAAD battery was within its reach. 

The issue is not only between the US and South Korea on the one side and North Korea on the other; China too opposes its deployment because the system’s powerful radar can scan not only North Korean but also Chinese territory. So, things are more complicated. Though North Korea has fired both types of missiles in its possession several times recently, this time it was more a demonstration of force and was also to show that it has made considerable advance in its missile capability. 

It is an irony of history that a few nations, which were divided on either ideological or other grounds after World War II, are reunited, and analysts ask if those examples can be replicated in the Korean peninsula. Such optimism seems to be far from the ground reality as the gap between North and South Korea is only widening over the years instead of narrowing down.

The communist North and the democratic South still remain technically at war because the Korean War ended in an armistice and not with a peace treaty. The discord continues as the North regularly threatens to destroy both South Korea and Japan, allies of the US. The only forum to negotiate North Korea’s de-nuclearisation — the Six Party Talks — remains suspended when the country walked out of it in late 2008. 

South Korea is increasingly experiencing the North Korean heat in a short period of time. After conducting the fourth nuclear test in January, followed by a space rocket launch the following month, which was widely viewed as a missile test in disguise, North Korea has always kept the tension alive. It sees maintenance of nuclear capability as the only secured means for regime survival and is unwilling to barter for any means. No sanctions have deterred the North to steer away from its nuclear path.

China’s role is questionable. It is displeased at the disrespect that Kim Jong-un has shown towards its benefactor and does not even have an invitation to visit Beijing. Though China supported tougher sanctions against North Korea more out of frustration than anything else, it is unlikely to abandon the North because of larger strategic consideration.

This time, China opposed the US decision to base THAAD battery in South Korea on the argument that the move would destabilise the security balance in the region. For China, THAAD is more than just a shield against North Korean attack. As expected, Japan too denounced the missile launches.

After several months of sabre-rattling, it is being rumoured that North Korea is planning its fifth nuclear test. Satellite imagery in the US has observed increased activity at the site where previous tests were conducted. No one seems to know the level of threat that North Korea poses to South Korea.

Though South Korea is used to the rhetoric from Pyongyang of turning Seoul into a “sea of fire” and of a “merciless attack”, the continued missiles and nuclear tests by North Korea have instilled a sense of fear. That is why Seoul succumbed to the US suggestion of THAAD deployment. Tension in the Korean peninsula is not likely to dissipate anytime soon.

The writer is ICCR Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan