Priyanka Gandhi has given consent for campaigning in Uttar Pradesh, and has told party leaders to devise a detailed plan. Sources say she will start campaigning after the announcement of elections. She might also participate in a function to mark Indira Gandhi’s birthday on November 19, and will address people. This, however, is not part of her campaign.
There is speculation that elections in UP will be conducted in seven phases. So, Priyanka’s campaign plan will be chalked out accordingly. She will address rallies in all phases. Based on surveys and the stronghold of the Congress, Prashant Kishor’s team has identified the places where Priyanka’s rallies will be organised.
Priyanka is not being pushed into campaigning right now as the Congress is confident of an alliance. Party leaders feel that when the feud in the Samajwadi Party is over, talks for an alliance will start. In both cases — if the Samajwadi Party breaks and if it doesn’t — the Congress can go into an alliance with it. Ajit Singh, Nitish Kumar and lalu Prasad Yadav might also be a part of this tie-up. Whichever seat the Congress gets, Priyanka will campaign for that. She will not share rallies with other party leaders, but Rahul and Sonia Gandhi will hold joint rallies with other leaders.
MUlAYAM’S MERGER TAlKS
Mulayam Singh is once again talking about the merger of parties of the Janata family. He has talked to RlD chief Ajit Singh, and has also contacted leaders of the JDU and RJD. That is why Sharad Yadav believes that there will be a merger of the Janata family. Nitish is also hopeful and has cautiously given a statement over the Samajwadi feud, saying that it is an internal matter of Mulayam’s party which can be sorted out.
In fact, whenever Mulayam is in crises, he starts talking about either a grand alliance, a third front, or a merger. When he faced defeat in the 2014 lok Sabha Elections, he started talking about the merger of six parties. But when it was actually about to happen, he took a step back.
Sources in the Samajwadi Party say that this time also he will sing the same tune till the ongoing crisis gets over. After that, Mulayam will put the responsibility of the merger on the shoulders of Sharad Yadav, like he did the last time. Everybody knows that the greatest problem in the way of a merger will come from Bihar. Merger of the RJD and JDU is not possible. Akhilesh is also against a merger, and Ajit Singh will also not be ready unless he gets something big. In this scenario, a merger seems highly unlikely. Although, a grand alliance does seem possible.
All EYES ON SP CONFlICT
Politics in UP is in an interesting phase. The Congress and Third Front are closely monitoring the infighting in the Samajwadi Party, and seem to be more interested in it than the SP itself. leaders of both groups are in close contact with leaders from all over India. Sources say that Samajwadi leaders have contacted leaders right from Sharad Pawar to Mamata Banerjee. RlD, which was on the margins in UP politics, has suddenly become important. Amar Singh had once fought from the RlD’s ticket and now it is being said that he is active in trying to forge an alliance between Ajit and Mulayam. But it is Nitish who will play a big role in this alliance.
Nitish has already given a statement in support of Akhilesh, saying he must come out of his family’s shadow. It must be noted that Prashant Kishor, who is very close to Nitish, is the poll strategist of the Congress in UP. Not only this, rapport between Akhilesh and Rahul is also good. So, there is a possibility that Rahul, Akhilesh, Jayant Chaudhary, and Nitish will come together.
But Mulayam and Amar are also not novices. Mulayam is in close contact with veterans of the Congress, and Amar doesn’t have any hesitation in talking to Ajit and the BJP. They are also in touch with Nitish and lalu. Both factions of the Samajwadi Party are trying to forge a grand alliance and many small parties are gaining from the situation. It is being said that it doesn’t matter if the SP breaks or not, an alliance will certainly come up.
BENEFICIARIES of INFIGHTING
Who will benefit from the feud in the Samajwadi PartyIJ leaders of BSP are most upbeat and believe they will be the greatest winners of the ongoing SP infighting. At the lucknow rally, Mayawati said everybody is trying to backstab each other within the SP, so Muslim voters must not get confused and should vote en masse for the BSP.
The BJP leaders are also hopeful that if the SP weakens, it will be a favourable situation for them. The BJP is of the view that it will benefit in both situations — if the SP splits or not. A leader directly linked to the BJP strategists says that if the party faces a direct fight with the BSP, and if Muslim voters are polarised, then it will be easier to get the support of non-Yadavs and forward votes.
At the same time, Congress leaders are seeing two benefits — first, they think that the SP infighting will open the path of an alliance; SP is getting weak and that is why it has to go into an alliance. Some leaders have also started talks of a grand alliance. If a grand alliance is formed, like in Bihar, then the Congress expects a comeback in UP. Small parties, like the RlD and QED, are also hopeful of gains.
ElECTION UNDER CAPTAIN
Though the Congress has not made an official announcement, it has become clear that the party will fight elections in Punjab in the name of Captain Amarinder Singh. Sources in the party say Rahul is behind this decision. last time too, it was Rahul who had declared the Captain as the CM candidate. This time, Pratap Singh Bajwa, who is close to Rahul, and other leaders were openly opposing the Captain, but to no avail.
Rahul gave an indication of his choice when he sent out a message to the farmers. In the campaign video, when Rahul’s message ends, a song starts: “Fir to ek vaar, chaunda e Punjab Captain di sarkaar” (“Once again, Punjab wants the Captain’s Government”).
Now the question is will Navjot Singh Sidhu go along with the CongressIJ Congress leaders say the party is ready to accept all conditions of Sidhu. The Captain is also ready to vacate Amritsar seat for him. If he is ready to fight the Assembly Elections, then the Congress might even offer him the Deputy CM post. The party is also ready to leave around one and a half dozen seats for him.
BJP’S DIRECT OPPONENT
Some time ago, Amit Shah had said that in UP, the BJP would have a direct fight with the SP. Interestingly, right after Shah’s statement, the situation of the SP started getting worse. There is infighting in the party and Mulayam’s family. The SP is clearly divided into two parts. CM Akhilesh and Mulayam’s brother, Shivpal Singh Yadav, are at loggerheads, and there is very little chance of a truce.
That is why political experts are now saying that there will be a direct fight between the BSP and BJP in the State. The BJP has also made a comeback in UP. The party has gained momentum after issues like the surgical strike and triple talaq. That is why the BJP is being seen in the top two slots in the recent surveys. The BSP is at a good position from the very beginning, and all the parties will be fighting with the BSP.
However, Shah has not said that his party will have a direct fight with the BSP. Probably, this is a special strategy that the BJP leaders are keeping mum on. They don’t want to declare a fight with the BSP as Mayawati might get the benefit. It is being speculated that after the crisis in the SP, minority voters may go in favour of the BSP. Despite that, the SP-Congress alliance might get some minority votes. But if the BJP declares that it will have a direct fight with the BSP, then the minority votes could swing towards the latter. In this case, Dalit votes can also be polarised in favour of Mayawati, while the BJP is hopeful of some Dalit votes. After the SP fiasco, the BJP is also eying some Yadav votes. Though it is true that despite all the crises, maximum Yadav votes will stay with the SP.
