There is a buzz doing rounds in the political corridors of the State that Chief Minister Harish Rawat might go for Assembly election a bit earlier than March 2017 that had been chosen earlier.
Some privy to the CM's office said the CM might take such a decision after the result of the crucial Bihar Assembly election is out.
According to them, publication of the Seventh Pay Commission might come in handy for the State Government that is grappling with pressure both from within and without because of a string of scams having surfaced to sully its image.
The Government is likely to implement the recommendation of the report and the Government employees constituting as much as 20 per cent of the State's electorate, CM might take the plunge, confident of their en bloc support. However, the State watchers say things bode ill for the State with populist profligacy getting the better of the hard economic reality.
For instance, as per the rough estimate, the State's loan is spiraling every year. On March 8, 2007 when General Khanduri took oath as the Chief Minister of the State then he disclosed that the State was having loan of staggering Rs 12000 crore.
Now the figure stands in the neighbourhood of Rs 40000 crore. It means that the State has taken loan of Rs 28000 crore in less than nine years. As per the census 2011, the State's population was 1,01,16,752 which means every Uttarakhand resident is carrying a debt of Rs 2.76 lakh on his head.
“However, if we calculate things in respect to its current population which is increasing steadily the debt amount might go down a trifle. But fact remains that the State is under deep financial crisis,” an analyst said.
As things stand now, if loan is taken to meet the rising expenditure as per the Plan budget the State may see development in the coming days. But things look grim here too with the State's 65 percent budget being spent under the non-plan heads.
The Government's stance is that this is a necessary evil. Non-plan budget spent to pay salary and interest of the loans taken cannot be reversed. This is why they are showing it under non-plan heads, they say.
Currently, 65 percent budget is being spent under non- plan heads and with the implementation of seventh pay commission, the figure would touch 85 percent.
Further, Uttarakhand Government is inclined to toe the Centre's line as regards pay commission reports. For instance, when the Centre accepted the sixth pay commission recommendation Gen Khanduri immediately implemented it in the State. However, despite the generous gesture, his party kissed the dust as BJP lost all the five seats in General election 2009.
With the publication of the seventh pay commission recommendation being on the cards, the view runs that as the Centre is likely to implement it, the State would follow suit.
This is a political compulsion with the State Government employees and their families constituting around 20 percent of the State's electorate. However, such pampering leaves the long-term interests of the State crippled.
“This attitude of the State Government bending over backwards to humour them coupled with rampant political interference is making many ambitious projects like the present Chief Minister Harish Rawat's mera ped mera dhan, heeto Pahad and the like wither away in nothingness. The end result is that the youths who could have transformed the State in terms of development are migrating to other States. The trend has been turning serious since the 2013 disaster.
The State suffering from a plain-hill divide is compounding the developmental woes. The irony is that those who are championing the cause of the hills are singularly reluctant to make the doctors and teachers from the plains to repair to the hills. The same populism-development dichotomy ruling the mindset of the ruling class is proving the bane for the State's developmental future,” another analyst said.
With things remaining grim on the economic/ development front, it is unlikely that by advancing the Assembly election, the ruling party would do a service to the State. “It might win the election, but it hardly means that it would bode well for the future of the State,” an observer said.
