Test for Modi wave in State
No one really knows which way the tide will flow; whether “Modi wave” will sweep Punjab, or the Congress party’s vote bank will finally swell after years of ebb. As the State goes to polls on Wednesday, 1.95 crore voters will decide in just 11 hours the future of Punjab, and 253 candidates in fray for the parliamentarians’ post with the touch of a button.
After almost two months of campaigning behind their back, they will cast their votes on 22,060 booths in 13 constituencies from 7 am to 6 pm.As the main contest here is between the arch rivals, the Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party combine, the presence of Aam Aadmi Party can't be discounted.
Witnessing a political storm already, not even political pundits can swear whether the winds of change will sweep the well entrenched candidates off their feet; and bring in the new ones in these constituencies. Or else, the tempest will subside into a lull without uprooting the trees.
On one hand where the Congress is facing anti incumbency wave against its UPA government at the national level, the ruling combine in Punjab is witnessing an undercurrent against them.
Having lost two State assembly elections, one after another, in 2007 and 2012, besides other polls, the Congress has a lot to prove not only for its prestige, but also for its political survival in the State.
In a masterstroke, the Congress high command infused a new enthusiasm among the dispirited cadre by asking the state’s top leadership to roll up their sleeves and fight the battle from the front. On the other hand, the ruling SAD-BJP is laying its bet on the Modi factor, and harping on the development agenda in the state.
Punjab had witnessed a high turnout of 70 per cent in the 2009 lok Sabha polls and the Election Commission (EC) is expecting this to go up by almost 10 per cent this time. The 2012 State Assembly polls in January 30 witnessed 78.67 per cent polling.
Generally witnessing a direct contest between SAD-BJP and Congress in the state's political battleground, the presence of AAP has made the contest in many high profile segments out of the ordinary, at least on some of the seats.
It is for the first time in the recent past that in Punjab, the people have a third option in the form of AAP. Political observers are of the view that AAP has made inroads into the state's political arena, and is likely to eat into the vote bank of both the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress.
Primarily, AAP is banking on the anti-incumbency votes against both the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. As SAD-BJP combine is ruling the state for the past seven years, Congress-led UPA is heading the Central Government for the past 10 years.
The Pioneer takes a critical look at the situation in all 13 seats in Punjab.
AMRITSAR
This is Punjab’s battle royal. Not because the Maharaja of erstwhile Patiala Royalty is in fray as Congress candidate, but because of the clash between the two titans — former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh and the leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley.
Making his maiden entry to the lok Sabha electoral fray in his three-decade long political career, Jaitley is facing two known Sikh faces — Congress’ Capt Amarinder and AAP’s Dr Daljit Singh, a renowned eye surgeon who has performed more than 20 lakh surgeries so far.
While the SAD-BJP leaders are projecting Jaitley as someone who would hold a significant position in the NDA government and brought sufficient funds to the state, the brewing resentment against the state government, especially against the Akalis, is hurting his winning prospects.
For Capt Amarinder, a win would breathe life into his political fortunes, which is dying its slow death after he was unceremoniously removes as state party chief. However, he is facing a tough task to ward off the anti-Congress wave at the national level, and exert a pull on the anti-incumbency against the SAD-BJP government.
It has been learnt that 80-year-old Dr Daljit is expected to cause much harm to the Congress vote bank, and would magnetize anti-state government votes in his favour more than the Congress.
For the ruling regime, especially the Badals, the stakes in Amritsar are higher than in their home constituency, Bathinda. The contest here has become a battle of prestige as it was Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal who raised the pitch for Jaitley to contest from Amritsar at the cost of three-time BJP MP Navjot Singh Sidhu, and Capt Amarinder making direct allegations on the Badal family for drug menace, and running various mafias.
BATHINDA
Here, it’s Badal versus Badal. Akin to the rerun of 2012 state assembly polls when Badal was facing his two brothers — his younger brother Gurdas Badal from People’s Party of Punjab and his cousin Mahesh Inder Singh Badal as Congress candidate — in his home lambi constituency, Badal’s bastion Bathinda parliamentary seat is witnessing fight within the Badal family.
Badal’s daughter-in-law and sitting Akali MP Harsimrat Badal, seeking her re-election, is facing challenge from her cousin brother-in-law and Badal’s estranged nephew Manpreet Badal as a Congress-PPP combine candidate.
Grabbing eyeballs, Punjab’s first family have not just political stakes involved, but is looking out to protect the family’s name in the political almanac.
More to the point, having a maximum of 29 candidates in the fray for the seat, the battle between Badals become all the more interesting with the presence of another Manpreet Badal, an independent candidate contesting on ‘kite’ symbol — PPP’s poll symbol during 2012 polls. AAP has fielded Punjabi singer Jasraj Singh longia.
GURDASPUR
In another clash of titans, Gurdaspur constituency may witness a nail-biting finish. Once again, the former rivals — state Congress chief Partap Singh Bajwa and former MP Vinod Khanna — will once again slug it out during April 30 poll.
Actor-turned-politician Khanna has won this seat thrice before. Even as the Congress has won this seat 10 times since 1951, the anti-incumbency might prove to be a disadvantage for sitting MP Partap Singh Bajwa who won this seat in 2009 against Khanna by a close margin.
AAP’s Sucha Singh Chottepur has turned the poll-battle into a triangular contest with the political observers believing that he may take away a major chunk of votes in his category, disturbing the political equations of the two big leaders.
ANANDPUR SAHIB
This seat has attracted many eyeballs after the Congress announced the name of former Union Minister Ambika Soni as its candidate, replacing the seating MP Ravneet Singh Bittu, whose name was already announced by the party.
Pitted against the “serial looser” Prem Singh Chandumajra, an Akali-BJP combine candidate, Soni is hoping to win her first lok Sabha election as congress candidate. A former Patiala MP, Chandumajra has faced three back-to-back defeats in his past three elections.
The presence of AAP’s Himmat Singh Shergill, an advocate who is representing the Sikh farmers facing eviction from Kutch area in Gujarat in the Supreme Court, has turned the battle interesting.
PATIAlA
Retaining this seat since past three terms, the sitting Patiala MP and Union Minister Preneet Kaur is facing a tough battle of all times during this 2014 general election. Seeking her re-election, she is facing a strong anti-incumbency against her with her once close aide Deepinder Singh Dhillon locked in a fierce electoral fight.
Akalis have fielded Dhillon as combine’s candidate who is well aware of the strong and weak points of the three-time MP in her constituency. The situation has emerged severe for the Maharani of Patiala in the absence of her husband, Capt Amarinder, who is contesting a battle of prestige against Jaitley in Amritsar.
Making the matters worse for Preneet, AAP’s Dharamvira Gandhi is getting groundswell support.
lUDHIANA
Unlike almost all other constituencies that are witnessing a triangular contest between, ruling combine, Congress, and AAP, ludhiana is seeing a four-cornered contest with a sitting MlA throwing his hat in the ring as an independent.
After the sitting MP and Union Minister Manish Tewari withdrew from the contest owing to his ill-health, Congress replaced him by shifting Bittu from Anandpur Sahib to ludhiana.
The grandson of former Chief Minister Beant Singh, he is pitted against the SAD-BJP’s Manpreet Singh Ayali and AAP’s Harvinder Singh Phoolka, and an independent Simrajeet Singh Mann.
The party winning this seat has alternated between the SAD and the Congress and it will be interesting to see who wins this time with AAP’s Phoolka, a renowned senior Supreme Court lawyer, and Mann, having huge support in ludhiana, turning things sturdy for the main political parties.
SANGRUR
Among others, the poll-battle will also be interesting in Sangrur constituency which is witnessing, once again, a fight between Akali stalwart Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, and Congress sitting MP Vijay Inder Singla.
With AAP fielding comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann as its candidate, he has given many sleepless nights to the two leaders. Making the contest another attention-grabbing battle, Mann is enjoying huge support among the youth.
FEROZEPUR
This border constituency had emerged as the Akali bastion with the combine wining this seat four times consecutively — thrice against the Congress. To break into its citadel, the congress has fielded its senior leader, Sunil Kumar Jakhar against the sitting MP Sher Singh Ghubaya.
Son of political stalwart Balram Jakhar, Sunil Jakhar is the leader of opposition in the Punjab Vidhan Sabha and is likely to get benefit of the anti-Akali wave in the state in general, and in constituency in particular. AAP has fielded Satnam Paul Khamboj from Ferozepur.
HOSHIARPUR (SC)
Congress has decided to replace sitting MP and Union Minister Santosh Chowdhary, seeing things not going in her favour to repeat her success in 2014 lok Sabha polls, by fielding sitting MP from Jalandhar Mohinder Kaypee.
Known as prominent Dalit leader of Doaba region and having rich political legacy owing to his father — five-time MlA from Jalandhar Darshan Singh Kaypee, decision to move him to Hoshiarpur was anticipated by many.
Kaypee is pitted against BJP’s Vijay Sampla who is contesting his first lok Sabha election, and AAP’s Yamini Gomar.
JAlANDHAR (SC)
Shifting the sitting MP Kaypee to the neighbouring Hoshiarpur seat, Congress has fielded a prominent Dalit face and former Minister Chaudhary Santokh Singh. He is facing Akali MlA Pawan Kumar Tinu who has emerged as a strong Dalit leader in the recent past. AAP has fielded the youngest candidate of the state, Jyoti Mann, from this reserved seat.
KHADOOR SAHIB
This seat is witnessing a contest between a stalwart and a first timer. As Akali Dal has fielded its senior leader Ranjit Singh Brahmpura from this seat, Congress lay its bet on first timer Harminder Singh Gill.
Gill, who is likely to get tactical support of Akalis against Brahmpura, had given a tough fight to three-time Patti MlA Adeish Partap Singh Kairon in 2012 assembly polls. Gill had lost to Kairon by a trivial margin of 59 votes. Against them, AAP has fielded Bhai Baldeep Singh.
FARIDKOT (SC)
Both Akalis and the Congress are facing resentment within the party on this reserved constituency, though they managed to subdue the same. As the SAD has fielded sitting MP Parmajit Kaur Gulshan, Congress has fielded sitting MlA Joginder Singh Panjgrain refusing ticket to party’s candidate in 2009 polls Sukhwinder Singh Danny.
AAP’s Prof Sadhu Singh, a professor, is receiving huge support making things tricky for the two.
FATEHGARH SAHIB (SC)
This reserved lok Sabha constituency is witnessing a close contest between the Congress and the SAD, with the AAP also in the fray. Ruling SAD has fielded a first-timer, realtor-turned-politician Kulwant Singh — the richest candidate, against Congress MlA from Nabha Sadhu Singh Dharamsot — who belong to a Baazigar community.
Selecting Dharamsot has cost Congress a senior leader Sukhdev Singh libra who joined Akali Dal, and also a major section of SC community has revolted against Bazigar community leader’s name and declared their support to Akali-BJP combine.
AAP nominee Harinder Singh Khalsa is the former Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer and once remained MP from Bathinda on SAD ticket. He is also former ambassador to Norway.
