Winning or losing, Cong may find chance to get united
Barely after a four-month gap, leaders of different parties have once again started participating in a marathon race. This time, the run is to capture the Kandhamal lok Sabha seat which fell vacant due to the untimely death of BJD MP Hemendra Chandra Singh.
He died on September 5 and the bypoll is scheduled to be held on October 15. The by-elections are historically important as they are a gauge by which the popularity of the incumbent Government is measured.
Therefore, Naveen Patnaik led BJD has put all its efforts to retain the seat, while powered by Narendra Modi’s victory, the BJP also hopes to capture it. The State’s main Opposition Congress which has been struggling to make its presence felt also sees the by-election at Kandhamal as an opportunity.
Interestingly, when the political pundits observe that the fight will be mainly between the BJD and the BJP, both the parties are hit by bankruptcy of leaders. It is another factor that who will win the poll, but, neither the BJD nor the BJP has any suitable candidate of its own cadre to fight it. Patnaik’s party has fielded Pratyusha Rajeswari Singh, wife of ex-MP Hemendra as its candidate while BJP imported former MP Rudra Madhab Ray to field him in Kandhamal.
Though the regional outfit BJD has been in the power in the State since 2000, the party has failed to raise its own cadre in Kandhamal. The party during the April 2014 elections had imported Hemendra from Congress and fielded him as its candidate. No doubt Singh won the polls by over a margin of 1.81 lakh votes, but the fact remains that the BJD does not have its own candidate for Kandhamal.
Now after Hemendra’s death, the party is also facing the same situation. Unable to find a suitable candidate, the party Supremo chose the former MP’s wife as the BJD candidate.
Similar is the situation for the BJP. Though the party claimed to haveits support base in the land of Swami laxamananda Saraswati, it is also saddled with the problem of finding a suitable candidate from within the cadre or from the Sangh Parivar. Finally, the BJP laid red carpet for Ray, who was rejected by Patnaik’s BJD for inefficiency. BJP’s two former candidates Ashok Sahu and Sukant Panigrahi were rejected and the BJP central leadership considered Ray as a suitable candidate to fight BJD.
Congress, which was in second position in Kandhamal lok Sabha seat in April 2014 polls, however, has fielded former Phulbani MlA Abhimanyu Behera as its candidate. Behera is an out and out Congress man and home grown in Kandhamal. He was an MlA in 1995 and unsuccessfully contested the 2004 lok Sabha polls from Kandhamal.
However, now the question is whether Behera could retain the party’s vote share of April 2014. Party candidate Harihar Karan four months ago had secured above 2, 40,411 votes while BJD’s Hemendra got 4, 21,458 votes. BJP candidate Sukant Panigrahi got only 1, 08,744 votes.
“We are certainly on edge over rivals in regard to candidate. But, we fear that Congress may not spend matching amount in the polls. Money is never a matter for both BJD and BJP,” said a Congress leader.
All the three major parties have meanwhile prepared their respective strategies. While Patnaik has deployed more than a dozen of Ministers and about 50 senior leaders to manage the election affairs in Kandhamal, the BJP has pressed into service Bijay Mohapatra, an expert manager of polls. Mohapatra, who was one of the chief strategists for the BJD before emergence of Pyarimohan Mohapatra, now will handle the poll affairs of the saffron party.
There should be no doubt that Mohapatra would put his best to ensure defeat of the BJD candidate. But, can the saffron party win the polls. It may be worth remembering that the difference between the BJD and the BJP was about three lakh votes in the last twin polls. Will an effective management of Mohapatra bridge a gap of three lakh votesIJ
Another theory says that there is no such Modi wave as it has been felt four months ago. When the BJP candidate Sukant Panigrahi could manage to get only one lakh odd votes at the height of Modi wave, how can Ray now garner supportIJ
Meanwhile, Mohapatra has already taken certain political steps to the advantage of the saffron party. Prominent Kui Samaj leader lambodar Kanhar and known non-Congress leader Kamalakanta Pandey of Biju Patnaik time have been roped in by Mohapatra. These two key political elements could benefit BJP. But, still there is a question whether they too can bring three lakh votes for Ray.
Winning a lok Sabha seat may not be significant for both the BJD and the BJP. But, they will never like to taste defeat. If the BJD wins the poll, the ruling party will certainly have the upper hand and claim that the ongoing scams and allegations against the ruling party have no impact on the people. If the party loses, it will certainly come as a major jolt for the ruling party. The voice of protest against the party leadership may gain strength if the BJD candidate loses the seat, says a political observer.
Similarly, the Kandhamal by-poll result has nothing to do with the Modi-led Government, which enjoys a brute majority in the lok Sabha. But, the outcome will certainly impact the prospect of BJP in Odisha. If BJP wins, the party rank and file will be further activated and they can hope an opportunity ahead. And if BJP loses, one can surely conclude that the party has to work hard to win the confidence of the people. Therefore, this will be an acid test for both the BJD and the BJP, said a former Minister of BJD. For the Congress, however, Kandhamal by-poll is certainly a good development.
The Congress candidate may win or lose the polls, but the fact remains that it may for the first time in a span of one and a half decades, will see different groups working in tandem.
