Despite the BJP sweeping Haryana in the lok Sabha polls, winning seven of the eight seats it contested, the State is set to witness a fierce, multi-cornered battle in Assembly polls three months from now.

There is almost a political unanimity on the fact that the best ever performance by the BJP in the State was largely due to “Modi wave” which was the macro factor all over north and western India. There is also an agreement on the fact that this overriding factor has by and large subsided now. Even Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda conceded in his meetings that there was a Tsunami which has come to an end and Assembly polls are a different ball game altogether. The reason is simple. BJP victory came in Haryana even though the party did not have an organisation at the grass roots level and in some seats, it was forced to field last minute candidates from outside the State and turncoats from other parties.

Ironically, despite all his follies and allegations against him, Chief Minister Hooda continues to be the tallest leader of the State as there is no one even from the Opposition to challenge him. The main Opposition Indian National lok Dal (INlD) is practically paralysed as two of its top leaders—Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala—are in jail for quite a while. Though INlD won two seats in lok Sabha polls, absence of its top leaders from the election campaign will surely affect its chances. The father-son duo, obviously Chief Ministerial candidates, has been convicted and cannot even contest the elections, creating gaping holes in the party. Abhay Chautala, the other son of O P Chautala, could now perhaps be the Chief Ministerial candidate as the regional party cannot see anyone beyond the family to control the reins of power. It is fighting with its hands tied and though there is sympathy for the jailed father-son duo in the Jat community, this may not be enough for the party to see it through this tough battle.

As INlD has its share of problems, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) led by Kuldeep Bishnoi has practically been a political non-starter. An ally of the BJP, it was allotted two seats in the lok Sabha polls and lost both despite a Modi wave in the State. Bishnoi himself lost from Hisar, a seat which he won in a bye-election in 2011. His father Chaudhary Bhajan lal won from Hisar in the 2009 lok Sabha polls but his death led to a bye-election.  Now questions are being raised in BJP circles about the efficacy of the alliance with HJC. “When he cannot even win in a Modi wave, how can he win in normal circumstancesIJ” questioned a senior BJP leader here.

Interestingly, BJP entered into an ill conceived alliance with HJC almost three years ago in which they decided to contest 45 seats each in the 90 member Haryana Assembly. Both BJP and HJC had also decided to share the Chief Minister’s post for two and a half years each if they are voted to power in October 2014 Assembly polls. But that alliance seems to have been stitched decades ago as ground situation has changed drastically in favour of BJP and against HJC, particularly after the lok Sabha polls.

For BJP, the biggest problem right now is how to wriggle out of the alliance with HJC. Senior BJP leaders know that HJC is now a major liability and it has no presence outside the Hisar belt, the fiefdom of Bhajan lal. Bishnoi does not have the charisma of his father Bhajan lal to bring the non-Jats on a platform which BJP was looking for.

The second problem for BJP is the absence of a leader who has an imprint all over the State and who could be projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party. Rao Inderjit Singh, MP from Gurgaon and Minister in the Modi Cabinet is an import from Congress and is not acceptable to the cadres and middle ranking leaders. Another Minister in the Modi Cabinet from Haryana Krishnapal Gurjar, the MP from Faridabad is not known outside his constituency. Capt Abhimanyu, spokesperson of the BJP too has been active but lacks ground support. Om Prakash Dhankar, national President of BJP’s Kisan Morcha hails from Rohtak and was the only party candidate who lost the lok Sabha polls to Deepender Hooda. This could weaken his chances of projection as the Chief Ministerial candidate even though he hails from the dominant Jat community. State BJP President Ram Bilas Sharma too hasn’t got much following and acceptability in the party.

No wonder even as elections are round the corner, BJP is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate. In fact, so far even the consultation has not begun. Party sources say that once a new BJP President takes over from Rajnath Singh in New Delhi, a decision could be taken. But so far, there is a sense of confusion amongst the BJP cadres on the issue.

Problems are plenty in Congress as well, the main being the revolt of senior Congress leaders against the leadership of Hooda. Chaudhary Birender Singh a bête noire of Hooda, has declared that he won’t contest the polls under Hooda’s leadership. Though Birender does not have much of an influence in the Jat Community and lost the 2009 Assembly polls, his continuous tirade against Hooda has affected the functioning of the party and the morale of Congress workers. Then you have former Union Minister Selja who too has been a vocal critic of Hooda and is leaving no opportunity to target the Chief Minister. Despite Hooda opposing here, Selja was nominated for the Rajya Sabha weeks before the lok Sabha polls and escaped being a victim of the Modi wave from her constituency of Ambala. A Dalit leader, she has limited influence in the state but of late has become the rallying point of the dissidents who want to dislodge Hooda. The Chief Minister got another setback, weeks before the lok Sabha polls when his friend and former minister Venod Sharma walked away from Congress and has now formed a regional party.

Despite all odds, Hooda is first off the block to launch his campaign for the Assembly polls. Even as the INlD and BJP are contemplating their next move, Hooda is addressing political rallies throughout the State accompanied by Haryana Congress President Ashok Tanwar. He has been mocking at the Gujarat model of development in his speeches and asking what has the Modi Government does in its first month. Backed by the State machinery and an advertisement campaign, Hooda is leaving no stone unturned. Though he is facing double anti-incumbency, both at the State level and of the UPA in the Centre, he is not expected to leave the battle without a fierce fight.

Given the ground situation, a quagmire of political possibilities could emerge in Haryana. Already, there is a buzz about four-cornered contest with BJP walking away from its alliance with HJC in the next two weeks. So Congress, BJP, INlD and HJC would battle it out separately for supremacy for the 90 seats of Haryana Assembly.

Even if BJP is not able to get the numbers to form the Government on its own, a situation is emerging where it could go for a post poll alliance with INlD to keep Congress out. INlD, an erstwhile constituent of NDA, has been sympathetic to BJP and wanted an alliance even in 2009 Assembly and lok Sabha polls  but was repeatedly spurned by BJP.  The Chautalas have been praising Modi for a long time on every forum available to them. Now with NDA firmly in saddle in New Delhi, INlD too has expectations as it has remained out of power for a decade now. They could stitch a post poll alliance and whoever has more seats, would be the dominant partner in the alliance and would stake claim for Chief Minister’s post.

Moreover, Shiromani Akali Dal, a constituent of NDA, has been an ally of INlD for a long time in Haryana and this has helped them get Sikh votes in the state. SAD is expected to lobby for inclusion of INlD in NDA as and when a favourable situation emerges in Haryana. If the outcome remains indecisive and no single party is in a position to form Government on its own in Haryana, this old chemistry could come to the fore.

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