With the Southwest monsoon showing no signs of strengthening and a terrible shortfall in rainfall in its first phase in June, Kerala is apprehensive of the possibility of a crisis in the agriculture and power sectors. The monsoon has remained weak since its start in the State on June 6, five days behind the normal schedule.
The rainfall shortfall in the State in the first phase of the monsoon is almost 20 per cent. The normal monsoon rainfall expected in Kerala till June 25 is 514 mm but this time it had received only 431.7 mm when June last year had brought to the State abundant rainfall that had crossed the 1,000-mm mark.
The shortfall in rainfall is being felt in the entire State and the districts where deficiency is notable are Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Thrissur, Kozhikode and Kasaragod. The shortfall in Thiruvananthapuram district is by 53 per cent while Kollam and Alappuzha respectively has received 31 percent and 30 percent less rainfall.
The districts of Idukki, known for its large number of hydel reservoirs, Malappuram, Palakkad and Wayanad had received near-normal rainfall but farmers in these districts are still unhappy with the performance of the monsoon. They are banking on the weathermen’s prediction that rains may strengthen this week.
However, local farmers in several districts say that they are not satisfied with the rainfall measurements given by weathermen. “The shortfall their rain-gauge centres show may be just 20 per cent. But we don’t measure rain in that way. For us, the water level in wells, ponds and fields is the measurement. And that is not impressive,” said a coconut farmer in Thrissur.
Though the rainfall shortfall so far has not affected paddy and other food crop sectors in a big way, the scene could change if the shortfall continues beyond the first week of July. In many places like Wayanad, re-plantation of paddy plants has already been completed but extended deficiency in rainfall could spell trouble.
“In our area, many farmers have already decided not to go for the second crop because of the threat of fall in showers. But a bigger problem is that shortfall in rains could affect the existing plants also. If monsoon fails to intensify, we will have to forget even the existing crop,” said Chandran Nair, a rice farmer in Palakkad, known as the Rice Chest of Kerala.
Rubber growers in Kottayam, the latex capital of Kerala, have already started complaining about a drop in yield because of the huge shortfall in rainfall. “We normally get good yield after the heavy rains of June but there are already signs that this time this is not going to happen. Coupled with the price fall, the situation is not good for us,” said a rubber grower in Pala, Kottayam.
The sector which is going to bear the actual brunt of the continuing shortfall in monsoon rainfall is power as almost the entire electricity the State consumes is coming from hydel power projects. The State Electricity Board, which had last Friday withdrawn a 45-minute load-shedding per day, now says that the restriction will have to be reintroduced if the rains do not pick up.
The water in the reservoir of the Idukki hydel project, the biggest in Kerala, was just 18 percent of the capacity on June 28 whereas this had stood at 36 percent on the same day last year. The situation is similar in almost all the other hydel reservoirs in the State, according to officials of the KSEB.
“We expect the situation to improve in the coming days. That is what the Meteorology Department is also saying. If that does not happen, there will be no option for the board but to reintroduce load-shedding,” said a senior KSEB official.
