As Andhra Pradesh rejected the State Reorganisation Bill 2013, in a voice vote on Thursday, the bill has been returned to the President who in turn will refer it back to the Union Cabinet. This marks the completion of a critical phase in the process of division of Andhra Pradesh and formation of a new State.

The process, which started in July last with the ruling UPA Government, Congress Working Committee and Union Cabinet giving their nod to Telangana State, has now reached a decisive stage.

The outcome of the debate in the AP legislature, while reflecting the deep regional divisions among the members and serious trouble within the ruling Congress, will hardly have any impact on the constitutional process as the views expressed by the State legislature were not binding on the Centre.

Article 3 of the Constitution gives full power to the Centre to divide any State of the Union.

But it will surely have political implications and the Congress-led UPA Government will have to be more circumspect in ensuring the passage of the Bill in Parliament in the coming Session starting from Feb 5.

Eyes will also be on President's House to see whether Pranab Mukherji plays along the Union Government's wishes or develops any moral qualms on the ground of the rejection of the Bill by the Assembly.

With many smaller parties openly opposing the division of Andhra Pradesh out of fear that their respective States may also meet a similar fate in future, the passage of Telangana Bill will be completely dependent on support from the main Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party.

Though the State BJP had been unequivocally supporting the cause of Telangana at the cost of its own popularity in Seemandhra regions, some of the national leaders were not so sure given the electoral compulsions and need for finding strong allies in Seemandhra regions. Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam and YS Jaganmohan Reddy of YSR Congress both potential allies in Narendra Modi's drive to become next Prime Minister were using their own persuasive skills to convince the BJP not to support Congress' move.

The opponents of Telangana — including Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy — were hoping against the hope that process of bifurcation will not be completed before the elections and will get buried in a cold storage if the Congress and UPA do not return to power.

Ultimately the entire exercise will come down to the number game in Parliament. Congress leaders like general secretary Digvijay Singh were putting up a brave front that the Bill will be passed and Telangana will become a reality before 2014 General Elections.

Failure to deliver will prove costly for the Congress, which has already lost the ground in Seemandhra regions. There are indications of a massive revolt brewing in the party in Seemandhra region and leaders leaving the party in droves. In such a situation if it does not fulfil the promise, the party will have no hope left in Telangana too.

Next move of regional Telangana Rashtra Samiti also needs to be watched carefully. The party has ignored the overtures of Congress for a merger as a price for creating Telangana state. It has also kept the options of joining hands with the BJP post-elections open.

If the TRS goes to the poll on its own, 19 lok Sabha seats in Telangana region will have a multi-cornered fight with Congress, TRS and BJP main claimants. But TDP and YSRCP will have little scope given their Opposition to Telangana State.

As far as situation in residuary State of Andhra Pradesh State is concerned it will eventually settle down after a few more rounds of protest. Public anger may lead to wiping out of Congress in the region. Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has also thrown a challenge that he will resign if the Bill was introduced in Parliament. Next corollary for him and others like him will be to quit Congress and a form a party of their own and claim the credit for opposing the bifurcation. But the main players will be TDP and YSRCP vying for the 25 lok Sabha seats in the region.