Pakistan: A New History
Author: Ian Talbot
Publisher: Amaryllis, Rs499
Despite a few factual inaccuracies, there are some insightful observations in the book which serve as a teaser for anyone interested in knowing Pakistan well, writes SUSHANT SAREEN
Biographers, whether of persons or nations, generally tend to either tear into their subject or else write with a soft (some would say, blind) spot. There is, however, another type of biographer, one who manages to mix the two. Ian Talbot falls in this third category of chroniclers. He doesn’t pull his punches in highlighting the numerous warts of, and blunders committed by, the Pakistani state since it came into existence and which today pose a clear and present existential threat to the state. But at the same time, Talbot seems to harbour an abiding faith in the ability of the Pakistani state and society to overcome the monumental challenges confronting it. This becomes clear from the literature review by Talbot in which he points to the ‘diversity and dynamism’ in Pakistan and gives credence to the volume edited by the quintessential Pakistan establishment figure, Maleeha lodhi, whose book Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis State, is more like a Press Information Department publication which seeks to put a positive gloss on things and ignores the ugly and almost insurmountable realities and problems facing Pakistan.
like many other Western scholars, Talbot places a lot in the store of the so-called resilience of the people of Pakistan to pull through the myriad crises that have engulfed the country. But resilience is really a euphemism for helplessness. After all, what is the choice before the people who face economic distress, physical insecurity, political dysfunction, administrative collapse and societal breakdown but to lower their heads and hope the storm passes over. This, in a sense, is exactly what the peoples inhabiting the lands that today form Pakistan have done over the ages in the face of dislocation, disruption and devastation caused by the marauding invaders.
This so-called resilience, coupled with sheer inability of the state to undertake rescuing reform, is what has given rise to the ‘muddling through’ thesis regarding Pakistan’s future glide path. Talbot, too, seems to subscribe to this thesis, and discounts the possibility of cataclysmic change. This is either because the implications of that are too horrible to contemplate or because he actually is convinced that Pakistan can muddle through endlessly. But clearly, even as Pakistan muddles through, it is in secular decline and this cannot continue indefinitely because sooner or later something will give.
While there can be quibbles over some of the underlying themes in Talbot’s book and on some of the conclusions he draws, there is a lot to commend in the book. For long-term Pakistan watchers, the book serves as a good refresher, and for those interested in studying Pakistan it is a very good primer on the seminal events and developments that occurred in the early years after Partition. Talbot gives an historical insight on how things have become such a mess, something that is often missing in most recent works on Pakistan which tend to concentrate on more contemporary issues. Of course, since Talbot has picked on his past works to write this volume, some of the information is dated. For instance, he mentions Balochistan as the main supplier of gas to Pakistan (page 23). The fact is that today Balochistan only supplies around 20 per cent of the gas while Sindh supplies almost 70 per cent of gas.
Asides of these small factual inaccuracies, there are some insightful observations in the book which serve as a teaser for anyone interested in Pakistan to delve in deeper. Talbot talks about the impact of the Punjabi migration as a result of Partition and the influence that the refugee has had on not only policy-making towards India but also in the rise of Islamism inside Pakistan. Unlike India where in the overall national context, the impact of the refugee influx as a result of the Partition riots was marginal (Punjabis are at best only around 4-5 per cent of India’s population and the refugee component is a part of this), in Pakistan the refugees, by some estimates made up nearly 40 per cent of Punjab’s population, which is around 20-25 per cent of Pakistan’s population. It is this segment of the population which is most vocal and visceral in its hatred of India and Hindus.
Even as he acknowledges Pakistan’s use of terrorism as a policy instrument against India (not to mention its own people, for example in the erstwhile East Pakistan and currently in Balochistan), Talbot indulges in the typical Western complaint that India could have done more to alleviate Pakistan’s security concerns. But he refrains from suggesting what, short of abandoning Kashmir and disbanding the Indian Army, would actually address these mostly manufactured concerns of Pakistan. On more contemporary developments in Pakistan — the Janus-faced state under Gen Pervez Musharraf and the torturous tenure of Asif Zardari — Talbot’s analysis is unexceptionable. His description of the Chief Justice conducting himself more as a politician is absolutely bang-on as is his apprehension that judicial over-reach and activism could destabilise the democratic system more than any executive action. He also correctly traces the current economic crisis to the Musharraf era’s faulty policies and the failure of the quasi-military regime to initiate structural reforms. The artificial boom of the Musharraf period (which some Indian economic analysts in the National Security Advisory Board couldn’t stop glowing about) was bound to collapse sooner rather than later.
While Talbot compliments Zardari’s politics of reconciliation and the efforts to promote federalism through the 18th Amendment and the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) award, the impact of the latter is only now manifesting itself and that too in not a very nice manner. The NFC award has shifted the balance of power (at least in terms of resources) in favour of the provinces and has thereby weakened the Centre but without strengthening the provinces. As a result, the state’s capacity and ability to manage affairs has been severely impaired.
Apart from the various existential crises that currently confront Pakistan, Talbot also points to other even more serious crises that are likely to emerge in the future — demographic explosion and youth bulge, water and energy crises and the failure to evolve a positive nationalism with a vision for the future. Even a normal stable state would find these a huge task. How an atrophying state like Pakistan proposes to handle these threats is something that remains beyond imagination and thus conjures up images of a cataclysmic future. But by flagging these issues, Talbot does add to the debate on what the future holds, not just for Pakistan but the entire region.
The reviewer is Senior Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation, and Consultant, PakistanProject, IDSA
