Syrian endgame solidifies Assad’s grip

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Syrian endgame solidifies Assad’s grip

Sunday, 23 February 2020 | Makhan Saikia

Syrian endgame solidifies Assad’s grip

Is there an alternative form of coalition, minus Assad, which can govern unstable Syria? It seems unfeasible, as the US and major powers involved in West Asia have seen the disasters that unleashed in countries such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and particularly in Iraq, after the departure of their longest-standing autocrats

The Syrian war is just going to complete nine years of devastation, displacement and a new power play in the restive West Asian region. The war that started in 2011 has witnessed for the first time the direct involvement of Russia at an equal pace against the US-led coalition. Though Bashar al-Assad has been threatened by anti-Government forces since the beginning, he has managed to survive till date. Now only the last rebel redoubt of Idlib is yet to be brought back to the fold of Government forces.

The biggest challenge is ending the ongoing civil war. It is one of the most serious humanitarian disasters in recent political history of the world, with the gravest refugee predicament since the World War II. More than half a million people have so far lost their lives. Almost half the population of Syria has been displaced. The number of refugees who have fled the country now exceeds five million, including more than 2.5 million children.

Turkey continues to host the largest chunk of refugees numbering nearly four million.

Looking at the current scenario in Syria, a completely war-ravaged nation, the worst comes for the internally displaced and for the refugees as they all would keep fighting for their survival. Normally a refugee is a person who is forced to leave his home and his country because his life and liberty are in danger. But the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees describes a refugee as one person who “owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable, or owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country”.

However, this typical definition of refugees have been broadened to include people who are forced to leave their countries because of widespread violence, war and foreign occupation that has put their lives at risk in their own homeland.

As of today, the Syrian refugees have crossed over to countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, North Africa, Iraq, Egypt, the US, Canada and to large parts of Europe. And out of the total refugees those who are asylum seekers are about a million. And a large number of them are in Germany and the rest of them are spread across Sweden, Canada and in the US.

The cumulative loss to gross domestic product from the starting of the war, i.e. 2011, through the early part of 2017 has been estimated by the international agencies, including the World Bank, to an amount of $226 billion. So far there has been no definitive cost of reconstruction worked out, but the Assad regime has wishfully mentioned it as nearly $400 billion. Thus, rebuilding Syria would be a daunting task both for the Syrian Government and international aid agencies.

Today the victory of the Assad regime over the rebel forces across Syria is a reality. Mainly, the rebel-held strongholds and large swaths of territories in the southern parts of Syria have been retaken by the Government forces in recent months. The main cities under the Government control are Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Latakia, Tartus, Palmyra and Albu Kamal. And the Free Syrian Army (FSA) — a loose organisation of armed brigades — was formed in the beginning of 2011 by defectors from the Syrian Army. Also many disgruntled civilians who want to topple the Assad’s family rule had also joined the FSA. But what is striking is that since the battle of Aleppo, the FSA has been only able to retain its control over limited areas in north-western Syria. The main area that it controls is the Idlib province wherein the final battle now is between the rebels and the Government forces. On the other hand, the Kurdish forces have occupied much larger areas, than any other forces, which include Raqqa, Quamishli and Hasakah. In fact, reclaiming Raqqa from the grip of ISIS was a historic win for the Kurdish Army. After the battle of Raqqa, the ISIS has been confined to an area near Albu Kamal.

Unfortunately, these areas are surrounded by the Assad forces from the west and the Kurdish from the east. And the rest of rag-tag militias who are battling the Syrian Army for their survival are Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Iran backed Hizbollah and the Syrian Democratic Forces, largely dominated by the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units known as the YPG.

So far, more than five series of ceasefire agreements have been concluded between different parties, including the US, Russia, Jordan, Assad Government and the major rebel groups. It first started in 2016 by the UN known as the Geneva Syria peace talks. In fact by February 26, UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2268 that demanded all parties to comply with the terms of the agreement. As no single party had adhered to the terms of the deal violence surfaced once again. By the end of September 10, the US and Russia concluded deal bringing ceasefire between the Assad Government and an American backed coalition of rebel groups. Both the parties and their allies violated the deal hence the war took an ugly turn.

 The third peace agreement signed between Turkey and Russia in Astana led to complete ceasefire across Syria. This effort continued despite the non-participation of the ISIS, YPG and the al-Nusra Front and constant eruptions of violent clashes in different parts of Syria.

The fourth ceasefire effort came into being on May 6, 2017, among Russia, Turkey and Iran in Astana to divide Syria into four de-escalation zones. However, some rebel groups alleged that the intention behind the truce is simply to divide Syria into several sectarian zones so as escalate the crisis. In a way, such partition would allow the Damascus to divide the anti-Government forces and pound on them separately. And by July 2017, the Trump Administration, Moscow and Amman (Jordan) made an effort to broker a peace deal in southern Syria. This agreement is valid despite continuous exchange of fire between the Government forces and various rebels.

The war in Syria is definitely going to wind down. The reason behind is that the rebels are fast losing their grounds. Among them the most powerful ISIS which is almost dying down with its leader’s death and mostly breaking down to splinter groups with diverse aims and objectives.

This is accompanied by constant reinforcements from Russia with man and material towards the Government forces. And in a situation where in America is busy preparing for the next round of presidential polls, Trump is hardly sparing anytime for a definitive solution in war-torn Syria. But the Kurdish stronghold in the North of Syria is going to continue unless there is a global understanding to either recognise their homeland or to completely vanquish them, provided Washington backs such a deal. All the anti-Government groups have now consolidated in the Idlib province. The sad part is that all of them do not have a feasible strategy to fight the Russian-backed Assad forces which might lead to a sure victory for Assad.

Finally, since the end of the Cold War, what we have seen is that ceaseless efforts lead to end of most of the wars along with warring groups laying down their arms. With other major conflicts and international hot spots rising such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen, etc, the Syrian issue has been substantially moved to the sidelines despite having serious refugee problems spanning from the West Asian region to Europe. Besides, the efforts to bring the warring groups and major powers to the negotiation table are seemed to be stalled. What is ultimately pushing Assad to near victory is the fast rising symptoms of fractured insurgency. On the other hand, the Government forces over the period of almost nine years have regained its strength despite having major debacles in the past.

Now what lies ahead for Assad? Is he going to continue in the seat of power? Minus Assad, is there an alternative form of coalition that can continue holding onto the current level of stability in Syria? Certainly, Assad would continue for now. Simply put this seems not possible as the US and major powers involved in West Asia have seen the disasters that unleashed in countries such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, particularly in Iraq, after the departure of their long held autocrats. Keeping this in mind, Assad must continue and his immediate removal could herald total anarchy in Syria. Clearly, no plausible alternative is emerging to Assad regime as most of the splinter rebel groups do not agree to a common agenda of governance. Their only aim is to have control over their own territory and assets, and fighting the corrupt Assad regime is just an excuse. Therefore, the brutal war may come to an end sooner or later, permanent peace seems to be elusive in Syria.

(The writer is an expert on international affairs)

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