EDITS | Saturday, July 4, 2009 | Email | Print | 
Dubious offensive against Taliban
Hiranmay Karlekar
How is Islamabad’s offensive against the Taliban progressing? New Delhi needs to have a clear idea because that would indicate Pakistan’s sincerity and capability in combating terrorism. A lack of sincerity would mean that, apart from preserving the Taliban for future use in securing its strategic goal of having a client Government in Kabul, Pakistan would also keep alive terrorist outfits like the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, for further intensifying its campaign of cross-border terrorism against India. Besides, the offensive’s failure would mean a resurgent Taliban dictating the Government’s policies, and gaining access to the country’s nuclear arsenal and perhaps, eventually, taking over the country.
Pakistan’s leaders have been making confident predictions. Interior Minister Rehman Malik told newspersons in Islamabad on June 27 that military operations against the Taliban would be completed soon. The Taliban would be totally eliminated and would not be able to re-emerge. A meeting in Islamabad on July 1 among President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and the Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, expressed satisfaction over the progress made by the security forces in Swat where operations have entered the final phase. Again on July 1, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said during an interview with The Guardian in London that Pakistan had ‘turned the tide’ in its battle with Islamist militants and had the Al Qaeda ‘on the run’ after a series of Government offensives.
There have also been claims of important militant leaders being seriously injured or killed. According to a report in Pakistan’s highly-respected English-language newspaper, Dawn, on July 1, Mr Rehman Malik said during an interview with the BBC that Baitullah Mehsud, the chief of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, had been badly wounded in the ongoing military operations. Besides, the daily had reported on June 25 that Qari Hussein, a lieutenant of Mehsud who was popularly known as Ustad-i-Fidayeen, or teacher of suicide-bombers and who had been tipped as Baitullah’s successor, had been killed in a missile strike on people who were present at the burial of an Afghan militant leader, Khoze Ali. According to the report, Mehsud, who was also present, had escaped by the skin of his teeth.
The question is: How much of all this reflects reality? Foreign Minister Qureshi’s statement that Pakistan had the Al Qaeda ‘on the run’ is somewhat mystifying given the fact that the country’s Government was supposed to have been fighting the Taliban, particularly the segment of it led by Baitullah Mehsud. Until Mr Qureshi had mentioned the Al Qaeda, the latter had featured virtually nowhere in Pakistan’s media or official statements about the conflict in the country’s north-western parts. As for the killings, Dawn reported on June 26 that TTP spokesman Mufti Waliur Rehman had said that reports of Qari Hussein’s death were incorrect.
Equally, one needs to question the validity of the Pakistani Government’s claim of military success against the militants. The offensive began in Lower Dir district on April 26. It was led by the Inspector-General of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps and was backed by the Pakistani Army and Air Force jets. A Dawn report on April 29 quoted the Director-General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations, Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, as saying at a Press briefing on April 28, that the operation had been completed and around 70 militants had been killed and others flushed out of the area. He said there were some pockets of resistance which would be cleared soon. Another report in Dawn on April 30, however, stated that the ISPR’s announcement notwithstanding, the situation in the district remained tense and militants were attacked with artillery in Maidan. According to a Dawn report on May 10, 13 militants, including a key commander, were killed and five others wounded when security forces pounded militant hideouts in Maidan, Lower Dir.
Yet another report in the May 20 issue of Dawn stated that the Army had claimed at the time of launching its offensive in Buner (April 28) that there were about 400 to 450 militants in the district and that the operations would be over in a week. But the militants, who put up a strong resistance, entrenched themselves in the district’s Sultanwas and Pir Baba areas. According to the report, Maj-Gen Athar Abbas said on May19, “Security forces have succeeded in clearing about half of Sultanwas and the rest is most likely to be cleared by Wednesday (May 20).”
Journalists, however, have repeatedly pointed out that there could be no independent evaluation of the military’s claims of casualties inflicted and areas cleared of militants, because mediapersons have been barred from operational areas. Referring to the killing of Qari Zainuddin, who had decided to take on Baitullah Mehsud in South Wazirstian, an editorial in the Dawn of June 24, said, “The truth is though little is known about what exactly is going on in South Waziristan Agency, who is fighting whom and why, and what is likely to happen in the days and weeks ahead…”. It added, “Reports suggest several militants from Baitullah’s camp have been killed so far, but this has not been verified independently. Meanwhile, drones continue to strike targets in South Waziristan Agency, but again it has not been possible to independently verify who had been killed.”
The feeling, spawned by the cloak of secrecy around the operations, that Pakistan’s military is not winning a famous victory, is strengthened by a report by Jane Perlez and Pir Zubair Shah in The New York Times of June 27. Referring to the fighting in Swat, it said that, by all indications, the Taliban had melted away without a major fight to return after the Army had withdrawn or to fight elsewhere. Stating that the military’s campaign has been less than decisive, it added, “Even in areas where progress has been made, the military controls little more than urban centres and roads.” It also pointed out that many Taliban fighters had infiltrated into the camps for displaced persons and would return with them and that good governance, regarded as an essential pre-requisite for fighting terrorism, was nowhere in sight.
It is too early to write the Taliban off.
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